Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Preliminary Finals

And then there were four.

Two Preliminary Finals. Two winners. Two losers.

Who plays off in the 2026 AFL Grand Final?

We will know by Saturday night after Sydney hosts Fremantle at the SCG on Friday night before Hawthorn hosts reigning back-to-back champs Brisbane at the MCG at twilight on Saturday.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

SYDNEY v FREMANTLE

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - SCG

A rollercoaster of an end to the 2026 season evidently hasn’t hindered the Swans in their premiership charge.

After a highly successful home and away campaign, the second-placed Swans were hit with an almighty blow, with five of their best suspended for the remainder of the year. That said, their on-field brigade, masterminded by Dean Cox, has responded incredibly, downing the Kangaroos to close the regular season before smashing Brisbane against the odds in an incredible Qualifying Final.

They enter as underdogs once more, with inspirational captain Callum Mills ruled out with an ACL rupture.

After a scare in their first final, the minor premier Dockers claimed their first finals win since 2022, knocking off Geelong in a thriller at Optus Stadium. Now, with the Swans to come, Fremantle enter as hot favourites to reach their first Grand Final since their 2013 heartbreaker against the Hawks. However, the job is far from over.

Hayden Young appears back to full strength, while Luke Jackson has continued to prove his value as a top 10 player in the competition. On the injury front, defender Brennan Cox will return to play via the WAFL, while superstar Caleb Serong celebrates his 150th AFL game.

On paper, this is an easy contest to predict. On field, it’s quite the opposite.

Fremantle enters as hot as any, downing the Cats in a stellar performance in front of a sold-out home crowd, while the Swans will be well-rested after a win that flipped the headlines.

Considering their absentees, Sydney is comfortably the most undermanned side in the final four, but as seen against the Lions, Cox’s system is far from one that requires talent.

That said, the Dockers have a list built for moments like these, and with a Grand Final appearance on the line, Fremantle should find a way to win away from home.

Prediction: Fremantle by 17 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

HAWTHORN v BRISBANE

Saturday - 5:15pm AEST - MCG

The Hawks powered into the prelim with a shock 32-point triumph over minor premiers Fremantle in Perth a fortnight ago.

It was a Sam Mitchell masterclass as the Hawks took away Freo’s main weapons, and at times made a very good team look second rate. A return to Preliminary Final weekend is next after losing to Geelong at the MCG at this very stage last year.

They have a good record at the ‘G this season with seven wins and two draws from 11 matches.

After an embarrassing Qualifying Final loss to the Swans in Sydney, the Lions roared back to life last weekend. They reminded everyone that they still mean business, brushing the Crows aside by 53 points. That result put the Lions into a fifth straight Preliminary Final.

Since losing the 2023 Grand Final, the Lions hold an imperious 8-0 record in do-or-die finals, not taking into account the two recent second-chance Qualifying Finals they've lost.

All-Australian forward Logan Morris, who signed a two-year extension during the week, is fine to play after copping a corked calf last weekend. Both the Lions and Hawks go in unchanged after Noah Answerth was unable to get up from an ankle injury.

Under Chris Fagan, the Lions have won 12 of their past 16 finals. The Hawks under Sam Mitchell are just starting out as a finals regular, but have a strong 4-2 record over the past three years.

Remarkably this is the first finals meeting between the two clubs and it promises to be an absolute beauty. The three-peat is well within reach for Brissie. They have to take care of the Hawks first, but their best football should get that done. Provided they do bring their best of course.

Prediction: Brisbane by 18 points.

Andrew Slevison