AFL Tribunal: Why Hodge expects Neale to be cleared

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• Tribunal hearing will start at 5pm AEST

Lachie Neale is set to face the music at the AFL Tribunal with his spot in the Grand Final once again the biggest talking point of the final week of the season.

This time last year the 33-year-old was in a fight against time to recover from a calf injury for the big dance, now he is appealing what would be his first suspension in a 320-game career.

The Lions midfielder was handed the one-match ban for a gut punch on Hawthorn’s Jack Ginnivan in Saturday’s incredible Preliminary Final at the MCG.

Looking to secure his spot in a fifth Grand Final - against former club Fremantle - Neale will face the Tribunal later today (Tuesday). We will bring you all the news as it happens through the day.

Hawthorn champion Luke Hodge expects Lachie Neale to play in this Saturday’s Grand Final against Fremantle.

He explained the reasons why his former Lions teammate should take his place at the MCG as Brisbane chases a three-peat.

“Teams that have success in September, there are teams that put their ego to the side, whether it's a player or a team,” Hodge said on SEN’s Whateley.

“I reckon that's what the MRP should have done this week.

“I think they could have let it go. Don't just say it's a Grand Final, look back at the history this year of what has been suspended and what hasn't. You go to the ones that haven't been suspended, you go to the ones that what classifies as a fine."

Hodge says there are two precedents which should play into the hands of Neale and his defence.

“There's two that probably match up close to, that's the Jai Newcombe on Max Gawn and also the Harley Reid on Matt Johnson with the elbow at the stoppage. Both those players went down for a long period of time, a lot longer than what Jack Ginnivan did, got up and was still struggling when they got the free kick.

“Lachie Neale comes in, throws an arm, his left shoulder hits Jack Ginnivan's shoulder and then his arm swings around into the mid-riff - from what we can see.

“But Jack Ginnivan gets straight back up, Lachie turns around, has a bit of go at him at flopping. I think if they looked at that and went back and reverted to the ones that they gave just fines for low impact to Newcombe and Reid, that's what it classifies as.

“It's not something where Ginnivan stayed down, he wasn't winded, he got back up and move on from there. I think that would be the right one. I feel that's the way that the Tribunal will see it tonight.”

“Lachie’s played over 300 games and not been suspended. So I think that the Tribunal sit back and go, same as the Scott Pendlebury one - ‘We believe that this is too much question mark for him to miss a game. We'll give him a fine and move on’.”

Gerard Whateley agrees: “I think that would be the sensible outcome, I truly believe that's what will happen.

“And if it doesn't it'll require a lot of analysis given what's happened previously.

“I’m surprised how desperate some people are to have him suspended. I don't know what that's related to. Is that related to his off-field”?”

Hodge: “Yep. There’s no surer thing.”

Whateley: “There's such a nastiness and it's on the text, which I'm not surprised by much that comes on the text, but I think most of the time, historically, we've leant towards, ‘It’s a Grand Final’. Come on.”

Hodge: “Whoever's writing in as a text message, put your main player, your best player, and your player did that as a response. How would they justify that? Because you sit back and go, that's not worthy of missing a Grand Final, especially with a record and especially the fact that Ginnivan just got back up.

“There's a lot of hate out there for his last 12 months and people would sit back and love to see him miss just because of what he has done in his own personal life over the last 12 months.”

Can Ablett Jnr precedent save Neale's Grand Final hopes?

Adam Simpson and Gerard Whateley discussed the ban on Monday and both agreed on the absurdity of the AFL not returning just a fine.

Labelling the farce of a ban "a dead set like for like" with Gary Ablett Jnr in 2019, Whateley backed Neale to be let off.

"The (player's) record is not a loop hole it's a provision in the rules," he said.

"Gary Ablett, like for like, in 2019, he had 328 games unblemished and he gets a one week ban in the prelim, it took the tribunal three minutes to downgrade it to a fine.

"He was a dual Brownlow medallist, as is Neale who has game 320-games in an unblemished career; a one week ban for striking. Take all the emotion out of it, on basic precedent, what was applied for Ablett must be applied for Neale.

"It was the same thing for Pendlebury, but his record was in the 400s, but the dead set like for like is GA Jnr.

"Dubious suspension, a fine would have sufficed and this is why I have resisted the no wiggle room and no black and white on the strike. this is a mistake in its conception. This should have come back as a fine."

Echoing Whateley's sentiments, Simpson said the matter should never have reached the tribunal.

"What are they doing? It could have easily been a fine and low impact," he said. "I know rules are rules but it could be construed as a body check.

"It's a 50-50- call at best in my eyes. With the magnitude of everything...it's a Grand Final. To miss a Grand Final with that?

"Brisbane probably think there's a conspiracy happening here. This will be a distraction for everyone for a few days and hopefully he is allowed to play.

"I'll be so disappointed if he misses it for that.

"Look at the vision, 10m after the collision happens; Lachie suggests to Ginnivan he has taken a dive and they both laughed. It was silly, he shouldn't have done it, he has no one to blame but himself; but this will be a three minute job. I think this will come and go quick and he will play."