Horse Racing

2 hours ago

Group 1 Gurus: Who to back in the Turnbull Stakes & why?

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Group 1 racing returns to Flemington this week with the Turnbull Stakes headlining the meeting, and it is set to be an insight into which potential horses can be seriously competitive Victoria’s big three.

The $750,000 race which is run across 2000m under set weights plus penalties conditions has been won by Sir Delius last year (2025), followed by Via Sistina (2024), Gold Trip (2023), Smokin' Romans (2022) and Incentivise (2021).

The 2026 edition consists of a super talented field, headlined by the autumn's Queen Elizabeth (2000m) winner Sir Delius attempting to go back-to-back in this race, who will be taking on three-time Group 1 winner Aeliana.

Check out our tips and predictions for the Turnbull Stakes below!


Turnbull Stakes

Winner: SIR DELIUS

Top 4: Sir Delius | Aeliana | Zahrann | Buckaroo

Why: It will be one of Sir Delius or Aeliana, in my opinion, but I’ve got to stick with the import.

Sir Delius won this race impressively last year, and may I remind you, he beat Autumn Glow at this distance in the autumn. That’s all I need!

Aeliana will give Sir Delius a run for his money. The mare’s autumn form is also as good as the import's, and she finished excellently in the Seven Sunrise Stakes last-start, running second behind Autumn Glow. I think she is better suited to a longer distance though.

Caulfield Cup favourite Zahrann should also run a mighty race. He was amazing through the line in his last-start, winning the Naturalism Stakes across 2000m. As far as value plays go, this stallion is your man.

I’m a huge Buckaroo supporter. While there are always queries around his ability to cross the finishing post first, the eight-year-old always runs a competitive race, and this distance is right up his alley. One for exotics!

Connor Scanlon


Winner: SAINT GEORGE

Top 4: Saint George | She's A Hustler | Sir Delius | Zahrann

Why: Unpoplar opinion but I wasn't overly thrilled with Sir Delius' first-up run. He will strip fitter, yes, but so will Half Yours and She's A Hustler who caught my eye more in the same race.

Saint George is my play here to turn the tables on Zahrann. Undefeated from two starts at the track and distance, a history of handling rain-affected tracks and one of my favourite jockeys Michael Dee takes the reins makes this hard for me to pass up. I honestly couldn't believe the price of it and Zahrann whose formlines I rate.

She's A Hustler sets up well here and I think flies under the radar in a star-studded race.

There's some value here if you take on the fav.

Ethan Clark


Winner: SIR DELIUS

Top 4: Sir Delius | Aeliana | Saint George | She’s A Hustler

Why: The class runner in the field should take out this edition of the Turnbull.

Sir Delius is the Cox Plate favourite and co-trainer Adrian Bott says he wants to see to him “pretty close to his best” on Saturday to vindicate that. If he is close to his best then he wins this.

Aeliana is effective on wet tracks and likes Flemington. Saint George is flying and will be running on. Want to see She’s A Hustler turn in a big run on her way to the Caulfield Cup. Likes it wet.

Eager to see Half Yours run well. Like Zahrann for the Caulfield Cup too, but a query on a wet deck here.

Andrew Slevison


Winner: SIR DELIUS

Top 4: Sir Delius | Aeliana | Half Yours | Cosmic Crusader

Why: Sir Delius to 2000m … pretty much a moral.

He won this race ultra impressively last year and smashed the class field in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. As Sir Delius progresses towards a Cox Plate, this is a race he just wants to tick off.

Aeliana should run a valiant second. She was struggling in her preparation this spring before a nice performance saw her run second in the Seven Stakes last start puts her back on track as she will look to beat the Waterhouse trained champ.

Half Yours running a nice place sure would shake up the McEvoy’s camps decision making either towards a Cox Plate or a Caulfield Cup.

Cosmic Crusader has been as honest as it gets since arriving in Melbourne with new trainer Andrea Leek, I think we another strong run to round out the first four.

Jasper Cormick


We also analysed the two Group 1s out of Sydney – the Flight Stakes (1600m) and Epsom Handicap (1600m).

Check out our tips and predictions for those two Group 1s below!


Flight Stakes

Winner: GLOBAL GOAL

Top 4: Global Goal | Striking Alibi | Bangkok Hottie | De Armas

Why: Global Goal can turn the tides on Bangkok Hottie and Striking Alibi. She had the fastest last 200m in the Tea Rose against that opposition, and was arguably held up worse than Striking Alibi. Hopefully with fresh air, and an extra 200m here, this filly will be blitzing home!

Connor Scanlon


Winner: GLOBAL GOAL

Top 4: Global Goal | Striking Alibi | De Armas | Bangkok Hottie

Why: Global Goal should definitely be favourite here. I can't have Bangkok Hottie on a wet track and I preferred how Striking Alibi and Global Goal finished off in that Tea Rose Stakes and the extra 200m works beautifully for those, as well as De Armas who will need map favours to come over the top of these.

Ethan Clark


Winner: BANGKOK HOTTIE

Top 4: Bangkok Hottie | Striking Alibi | Global Goal | De Armas

Why: Reckon Bangkok Hottie is being a bit disrespected given she’s 2-0 on Striking Alibi.

The latter is clearly the danger and can win. As can Global Goal.

Not overly interested in this Group 1, however…

Andrew Slevison


Winner: Bangkok Hottie

Top 4: Bangkok Hottie | Striking Alibi | Queen's Gamble | Global Goal

Why:

Bangkok Hottie to make it 3 on the trot

She has shown a fair bit of tactical speed in her short career, and I think she will prove to be difficult to beat in this Group 1 affair.

Striking Alibi is an eye-catching horse, but last couple of starts just keeps finding herself in a tricky situation, but I think her class will get her close.

Queen’s Gamble is more of a value play, but trainer Matthew is on fire, and this horse deserves forgiveness from last start. If we rule that start out, she is coming off two wins.

Global Goal has shown talent in all her three starts; I just don’t have the same confidence in her compared to a horse like Bangkok Hottie.

Jasper Cormick


Epsom Handicap

Winner: CEOLWULF

Top 4: Ceolwulf | Autumn Boy | Attica | Lady Shenandoah

Why: I originally couldn’t split Autumn Boy and Ceolwulf, but then I saw Autumn Boy’s barrier…

The Chris Waller-trained horse has drawn barrier 1 and with a field of 19 horses that is a recipe for disaster!

However, when looking outside that barrier, Autumn Boy would be 4-0 at the 1600m distance if it weren’t for Sheza Alibi. He should still run a nice race but may not be able to get the job done given the barrier.

Ceolwulf is now fourth-up, it is now his time to shine. Ceolwulf is a horse which only gets going deep into his preparation, and he is nearing that point. Loves the mile as well. Unleash the Wulf!

Connor Scanlon


Winner: AUTUMN BOY

Top 4: Autumn Boy | Idle Flyer | Lady Shenandoah | God's Window

Why: I've been with Autumn Boy several times and he never runs a bad race, he just runs into Sheza Alibi religiously! JMac aboard and the mile are huge ticks and I really think this race is his for the taking.

Idle Flyer finished off better than Ceolwulf last start and I like the set-up, while Lady Shenandoah is always thereabouts but seems to lack the turn of foot at the moment to claim a win.

God's Window finished off strongly behind Skyhook along the rails and is way over the odds for a Chris Waller gelding. I am happy to take on Well Written as a Kiwi first-up in Australia.

Ethan Clark


Winer: ATTICA

Top 4: Attica | Fully Lit | Autumn Boy | Ceolwulf

Why: Hard to know how wet it will be on race day.

Siding with Attica who maps well and carries only 51.5kg.

Fully Lit is the value play. Ran second to Autumn Glow in this race last year and can run a big race from the front.

Autumn Boy and Ceolwulf next. Both can win. Chances don’t end there.

Andrew Slevison


Winner: WELL WRITTEN

Top 4: Well Written | Autumn Boy | Ceolwulf | Mr Miller

Why: Well Written is going to prove the naysayers so wrong.

Unbeaten. 7 wins 7 starts, about to make it 8/8.

Autumn Boy is obviously the other class horse of the race, ran second to an absolute superstar in Sheza Alibi last start. I think she runs second to another gun Saturday.

Ceolwulf has settled into another preparation soundly, running well around a certain horse, not sure if you have heard of her… Autumn Glow. The form will stand up.

I think Mr Miller announces himself in the Group 1 atmosphere, especially with the light weight claim.

Jasper Cormick

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