Ryan Phelan's Sunday best at Cranbourne (04/10)

Ryan Phelan has your tips and Quaddies for Cranbourne harness Sunday night.

Race 1

OVERVIEW: MISS ADDI (4) brings one of the strongest profiles of the program, with a strong record at this track and distance range, and comes off some first-rate form, including a win here two back when able to lead, with strong placings around that, including at Melton. There’s speed inside here, but the smaller field should allow her to map favourably and produce solid final sectionals, which she’s consistently been doing this time in. MASTER LOUEY (1) looks the main danger from the soft pole draw, with Herbertson aboard and the likelihood he will get his chance along the sprint lane after doing little work, trailing the speed as he’s done recently at this track. It all depends on the tempo and the momentum he gets into the straight as to whether he can run down the top pick. HILTONS SPIRIT (2) deserves respect based on current form, which has seen him win 3 from 10 this season, along with some solid recent sectionals last start at Melton. This is another strong race, but his soft map has him in the mix. KEAYANG SANTIAGO (3) is an interesting runner returning to VIC and his former stable, and did perform well earlier in the year. He has early gate speed and will no doubt look to be on the front end; just prefer to see him against this line-up. WOTDIDUSAAY (6) caused a big upset at Echuca and deserves consideration on that effort; this draw makes things a little tricky, however.

BACK: MISS ADDI (4) – 2.5 units (win)

SELECTIONS: MISS ADDI (4), MASTER LOUEY (1), HILTONS SPIRIT (2), KEAYANG SANTIAGO (3)

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: CHARLIE SEBASTIAN (7) has been very honest, being runner-up in 4 of 6 attempts and racing well at this track. He got a good run and bumped into a handy one last time and just couldn’t match those sectionals when 2nd, while his runs prior were good, often from tricky draws. No favours with his marble again, but I fancy this is one of his most winnable opportunities. TOMBEUR (5) creates interest as a first starter off a trial win in slow time recently, and that was his first outing in a year. He’s from one of the state’s best stables, so monitor any strong market support. MEGALODON (8) is a well-named son of the mare Classic Shark and has shown promise in two career outings, finishing 3rd on both occasions. He goes from better draws to the back row but can get an economical peg run here and get his chance late. SIR KITT (1) is a 2yo who struck a very strong bunch of his own age on debut and now takes on more experienced types. He has a soft draw, and these shouldn’t put down the sectionals he faced last time, so he is open to improvement.

BACK: CHARLIE SEBASTIAN (7) – 1.5 units (win)

SELECTIONS: CHARLIE SEBASTIAN (7), TOMBEUR (5), MEGALODON (8), SIR KITT (1)

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: LIBERTY STAR DUST (5) is racing well, with a good win four back at Kilmore when given an ace drive, then went very close to winning at Geelong two back. Around those efforts, he was racing against the elite of his age group in the Vicbred Series. He’s only had the one start at Cranbourne for a win, and although he’ll need luck from the draw, he is a strong winning hope. CYCLONE JENNI (7) did a really nice job in winning from an awkward draw at this track four back and has been a little out of her depth class-wise since in the Vicbred. The draw is very tricky here but she deserves respect based on what she’s capable of. STORM VENDETTA (1) looks to get a very cosy run from the inside draw and has been racing well in his three runs for the new stable. He meets a few handy ones but must be included in exotics. HEZ HARRYWHO (2) finds a good draw and distance here to buck the trend of form he’s been in. That was the case four back when he found the front over the mile and wasn’t for catching at Kilmore. Look for a big bounce back on those key form indicators. FARROH JOE (3) is a 2yo taking on the older horses here and has run well in similar circumstances before, albeit in slightly easier company. He placed 2nd in his heat and 7th in the final of the Vicbred Series. WEONA OUR RIGHTS (4) is going okay, with his only failure to place this season coming when he drew wide in a Vicbred heat. He’s in the mix with the right run.

SELECTIONS: LIBERTY STAR DUST (5), CYCLONE JENNI (7), STORM VENDETTA (1), HEZ HARRYWHO (2)

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: A good-quality race with a mix of 2 and 3yos, with the younger pair of LETITRIDELUV (2) and filly TWIGSTAR (3) looking the standout options. It’s agonising to make a definitive call between two horses who are racing so well at this level, but I must lean to TWIGSTAR (3) based on her excellent debut where she settled back in the field and ran away from them over the short trip. She now has a more favourable draw to press forward over the longer trip and potentially look for the lead. She’s already proven she can run time and, with natural improvement, will be very hard to catch. LETITRIDELUV (2) already has a decent scalp in his career in winning his maiden, then has acquitted himself very well against the elite of his age group in the Vicbred Series. He didn’t draw well in any of those races, and this favourable marble guarantees a positive map and every chance to win again; it’s just whether he’s capable of running times comparable to what the top pick did on debut. Would be surprised if that isn’t the quinella, with much of the remainder having claims at the minor end. BROADWAY OBSESSION (9) may be next best based on a strong SP profile and a solid place strike rate, with SWEET LADY LOU (8) and CALIFORNIA COOL (1) both benefiting from being on the peg line in what should be a strong last half.

BACK: TWIGSTAR (3) – 2.5 units (win)

SELECTIONS: TWIGSTAR (3), LETITRIDELUV (2), BROADWAY OBSESSION (9), SWEET LADY LOU (8)

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: Tricky race, being a standing start over the long distance for trotters and not presenting with the most reliable form under the conditions. EMWALLEN (3) has the most upside, being a lightly raced 5yo, winning 4 from 12 including two solid wins when able to lead all the way recently. This is his first crack under standing-start conditions, which is a slight concern considering some of his rivals love the tapes, but if you’re willing to take the risk, his ability can carry him a long way. MAESTRO (8) ticks a few boxes, being the most reliable and adept under standing-start conditions, a country cup winner under similar conditions and securing the services of Chris Alford. He’s a horse who seems to keep coming under slogging conditions, so he can overcome the back mark here. AVANT GUARD (7) will appreciate facing this sort of quality, having raced better types his past few. He was a winner in similar class four back but under mobile conditions. He’s yet to win from the tapes, but this is his best chance. EL CONQUEROR (5) likes the stand and longer trips and brings a favourable SP profile considering the opposition here. He doesn’t win out of turn, but his manners and the opportunity to get in front of some key rivals hold him in good stead. There’s a host of others worth considering, such as SOVEREIGN TIGER (6), who likes this track and is a last-start winner in easier company, and NEPHEW OF SONOKO (9), who, although he prefers mobile conditions, strikes the easiest race he’s faced in a while.

SELECTIONS: EMWALLEN (3), MAESTRO (8), AVANT GUARD (7), EL CONQUEROR (5)

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: JUSTLIKEDAVE (7) was able to lead from this draw two back over the shorter trip and bolted in, winning by 18m and running fast time. He ran 2nd last start when a very short-priced favourite, but the run was still good after over-racing back in the field. His record over anything longer than the sprint journey is a concern, but his best form is hard to ignore. ROBLEN RANGER (2) could be a good roughie here, 2nd up from a break after doing plenty of work fresh. He has good speed to utilise this inside draw and map well. He can give cheek at a price and goes in the Quaddie for sure, no matter the odds. ROBLEN DEMON (5) is his stablemate and has been in good form this preparation, sitting tough and winning here two back. The map may be a little tricky but he can strike with the right run. The back-row runners BONA KHAN (8) and ALTA BAYAMO (9) can be very hard to catch, particularly from back-row draws, but they are worth keeping safe with the extra distance should those at the top end overcook things.

BACK: ROBLEN RANGER (2) – 0.5 units (win) 1.5 units (place)

SELECTIONS: JUSTLIKEDAVE (7), ROBLEN RANGER (2), ROBLEN DEMON (5), BONA KHAN (8)

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: SIR CANDY CLOUD (1) has the advantage of the concession to use a coveted pole draw and his good gate speed to get a comfortable lead over the short trip. He’s run well in his two runs with recent G1-winning driver Blake Pace aboard, and if he can tap the brakes in the middle section and get a lungful of air for the finish, he will be hard to run down. REASON TO LOVE (8) can catch his cover on the peg line and didn’t have much luck last time from a similar position. He can be an improver from the map and should be included in all multiples. CHASING THE WIND (9) has been popular with punters the past couple with Alford aboard, and having to do no work and come with one run here may suit depending on the tempo. ROCKNROLL RAMBO (10) is threatening to win, placing at his last four starts, but he goes to the back-row draw over the short trip, which hurts his chances. However, the closing sectionals shouldn’t be overly quick for him to make up ground late. DELTA STARZ (5) had a flat tyre last time and can improve based on his win four back, while it’s hard to know what to make of POWERLINC (6), but he is worth throwing in the wider Quaddie should you want to be safe.

BACK: SIR CANDY CLOUD (1) – 1.5 units (win)

SELECTIONS: SIR CANDY CLOUD (1), REASON TO LOVE (8), CHASING THE WIND (9), ROCKNROLL RAMBO (10)

Race 8:

OVERVIEW: PICKLE IT (5) looks the starting point here in a very even race where map and conditions will play a major part. This horse is a very quick beginner, relishes the mile and has a strong record at the track of 29:4-4-8. He’s probably been run off his legs with the times put down his past few, but those times are unlikely here, so he can hold on with the right tempo. OHHEMJAY CRESCO (1) is a one-batter who will be doing his best to hunt up from the pole, but he proved last start at Wagga that when he can roll along, he’s hard to get past. There are several horses that are map-dependent but are going well enough to include: GOZO MAJOR (4), DOT BALL (6), QUICK CRUNCH (7), FINAL BOW (8) and TOPHUT JOHNY (9). If things worked out, a win by any of them wouldn’t surprise at all. Maybe throw them all in the Quaddie if you want to go wide.

SELECTIONS: PICKLE IT (5), OHHEMJAY CRESCO (1), QUICK CRUNCH (7), TOPHUT JOHNY (9)

10-UNIT GAME PLAN

R1 #4 MISS ADDI – 2.5 units (win)

R2 #7 CHARLIE SEBASTIAN – 1.5 units (win)

R4 #3 TWIGSTAR – 2.5 units (win)

R6 #2 ROBLEN RANGER – 0.5 units (win) 1.5 units (place)

R7 #1 SIR CANDY CLOUD – 1.5 units (win)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,2,4/5,7,8/1,2,3,4,5,7/2,3

QUADDIE

3,5,7,8/2,5,7/1,8,9/1,5,7,9

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