Saturday best bets from Luke & Taggart (17/10)

Cam Luke & David Taggart have your Saturday sorted on Trackside.

The lads have taken a close look at Caulfield & Randwick in a bid to find the family some winners.

See their best bets below:👇

Cam Luke

CAULFIELD

Race 1 | 1. Lepolo

Forget last start where the HT stuffed him and focus more on his ability to cover ground in those first 2 wins. Blinkers go on and that’s also a positive. He is drawn well but will be 3 pairs back but getting into a groove is most important. He clearly looks like a 2000 plus horse and he gets it here today! There is some speed (Aragog / Cignetti) which will help this bloke. Open race as most get to 2000 for first time, but I like this guy to bounce back hard!

Race 2 | 5. Your Colour (Each-way)

She was very good last start in a decent race and she screams Oaks filly. The gate isn't great but she will get back anyway and run on. Fringilla I think will ensure some speed and that will work for BS to give her time to balance up. She hit the line really well over the mile even with a little flat spot! She is fit and a girl who screams fit and the GT won’t worry her. Open race but she has talent and is well over the odds at $9.50 and a great each way play!!

Race 3 | 7. Eagle Express

This is such a weird race. I can't get a major read on it. Fave (GeeGees) is the best horse in the race but has to carry the weight! She was good in a G1 but will get back and the 1100 is a concern. I'm with EE. Needed more room at a crucial time last time and from that gate will box seat again (so luck needed again). 1100 isn’t a major issue as she will be prominent. GT works as does superstar jockey and the fact she has run well 3rd up before. This is my smallest interest betting wise of the day in Melbourne but this girl is over the odds and deserves a little each way play.

Race 4 | 3. Zambales

Going back in trip (1300 down to 1100) last start and the HT didn’t suit as he was run off his feet. His 1300m win at Bendigo suggested going up in trip would work and he gets it here! His runs last prep in those Sydney G1 suggested he is right on the door of winning a nice race and this is easier and more his style to win. Boys Bounce and Aria will go fast and from that gate DL will allow Z to find a backside midfield. He has been here only once and ran well in the BD (not sold on the form though) but getting up in trip gives him a chance to run really well here in an open race!

Race 5 | 2. War Machine

Nothing went right in the Rupert Clarke. Horrible gate, snagged back and got keen. He has had a trial in between and went well. He loves 1400 and from that gate he can be closer to the speed as per. Loves the firm deck and 3rd up form is great. He is a G1 1400m winner and even though this prep hasn’t been perfect, I expect him to run really well. Private Eye clearly the fave and the one to beat. Form around Cosmic Crusader stacks up well and he will take a mountain if beating but I am backing WM to bounce back and beat him!

Race 6 | 2. Cavalry Girl

Was really good in the Moir and has freshened up since that. Jump out since was ok and from that gate I think CW will go and sit OSL Hidden Motive who will kick up from gate 1. Might be a smidge better with a little bit of rain but goes well enough on the firm deck. She never runs a bad race and even though $2.50 is as short as you'd want her, I expect her in a slightly easier race than last time to run really well over her pet distance.

Race 7 | 5. Icelady (Each-way)

She was brilliant winning the Prelude where she worked at both ends! She was still strong through the line and I dare say they will adopt the same tactics and make them catch her again (even from a wider gate). GT works nicely as she will keep running and make it hard to run her down. Ran well 3rd up before but she is better this prep and the 1600 will help her be even better. Over the Bridge and Regal Ambition will be a long way back and make it tough for them to run her down. De Armas can be a challenger if she handles the firm track. Was really good in the Flight and that form stacks up here but being a Kiwi maybe better in the soft. Icelady I think is way over the odds (so you can back her each way) and the one they have to catch and beat and I don’t think they will!

Race 8 | 12. Over Excited

This girl is very progressive. Beat Icelady in debut (good from) Only just got beat by Satono Glow (great form) and then went inside last start when the 2 stars went wide and I think she was in inferior ground (HT also not to her liking either). Today from the chute MZ can have her humming behind the speed and roll around them in the straight. As long as the HT run last start hasn’t flattened her, she is the class girl here and wins back on the GT.

Race 9 | 9. Royal Supremacy

This is such an open CC and I like this bloke who has found form. There will be no complication from the visiting jockey, let him roll forward from that nice gate. He drops a lot of weight and he has that residual fitness from the QLD winter (where he won). Those last couple he won he dictated at a muddling speed but I think once he gets in rhythm here, he will work the speed to his advantage. 2400 on a GT works a treat. The fave (Crusader) is the horse that has the best from lines and he was so good winning last start like he will love 2400m but the barrier is the concern. He will go back and WP will need to give him a 10/10. Not saying he can’t win but I’d prefer to be with RS who will go fwd and make his own luck! Really really keen!

Race 10 | 4. Shadhavar

Quicker turn around than the five weeks between runs before last start where she gave the winner a bunch of weight and almost still won. Drawn a little better today as well and up to the 1400 she'll have the speed to be forward and be prominent in the run. She enjoys Caulfield, she loves a good track and she has a much better map than Concord Connie who faces her biggest test. Always runs well fourth up and goes particularly well with Williams in the saddle. She will be very hard to beat!

RANDWICK

Race 1 | 6. Matias

Only had the 1 trial leading into that run in Newcastle where he ran really well, he's had a tick over trial since and from this gate he finds this race with the perfect setup. He will box seat, he has zero weight and he handles the soft. He is too short to back but will be too good for these!

Race 2 | 1. Calamari Ring (win) / Can have a little play - Miss Black Betty (Top 5)

This girl comes out of the right races in Melbourne and all the form around her are going to be very hard to beat today. (One of them in the G1) - Over The Bridge). She was really good last start and she gets a way better map today. She has handled the sting out of the ground previously which is a tick today. She hit a flat spot as well and that has me thinking the 1400 is perfect. Really like her and will be very hard to beat! Now, there is a horse in this race I am going to have a tiny play on. Miss Black Betty will need it further but I thought she was ok resuming. They'll go a bit quicker today which helps her albeit it’s a higher class. She will improve into today and again 3rd up but $61 is too high even as a maiden. I've backed her to run Top 5.

Race 3 | 2. Churchill's Choice (Each-way)

Drying track gives this girl a big chance. She got a long back in Tibbie but that was gate related but today from that gate she might be a little closer in the run. She runs well 2nd and loves the mile! Her runs last prep in tough races is well and good enough for this. This is a decent race but I expect this girl to be getting home late and be hard to hold out!

Race 4 | 5. Athabascan

Hasn't won since this race 2 years ago but he was great through the line in the Metrop. 2600 is a tick obviously as is the soft deck. The pace will be decent and ZP will allow him to settle back and get into a groove. He will stay all day and there are couple queries on a few of these over 2600 (So You Are / Bella Mogtangna) and the form (Budgiesmuggler). I am not having a major crack but I think this bloke will run very well.

Race 5 | 10. So You Pence

I love this race as a fan but not so much as a punter but I am having a dip here! So many formlines which is great and man do they normally go fast. Don't stress about the gate, just worry about getting cover. He is lightly raced and only a handful runs since this race last year. The trainer is brilliant at finding races for his horses and this horse has this minute in mind for 12 months. Incredibly well weighted and will be very hard to beat!

Race 6 | 6. Grafterburners

Is having a really good prep and finds a slightly but open race here! He will have the perfect run in transit from that gate. He enjoys the wet and NR goes on and he is the top of horse he can get the best out of. Can be somewhat forgotten but he is really talented and he needs the right setup but he gets it today. Charm Stone is te danger. Drying track works for her after a great run in the G1 in Melb with no luck. Neither would surprise me but I think the extra moisture tips it to Grafterburners but she goes in the Quaddie.

Race 7 | 1. Ka Ying Rising / 9. Tempted (Exacta)

Not a race I'm having a major splash at. KYR is the best horse in the world. He is fast so the gate is no issue, will go forward and the drying draining track takes any HT concern out. Tempted is Australia's best sprinter and is a mini freak and she is better than last year when she ran 2nd. The issue, so has he! Take the exacta and enjoy the race!

Race 8 | 13. Plaintiff (Each-way)

Beiwacht and Skyhook are the 2 best in the race but they will both go forward and maybe put more speed in the race than they both would like. Keeping in mind that their main goal is the Golden Eagle in 2 weeks. I've backed the mare each way as she will enjoy speed up front. She gets up in trip 3rd up which is a big plus. She is drawn wide and will go back but because of that she can go around them wide and that’s her go! Soft track no dramas and she will be rattling home and is well over the odds with the market so heavily towards the top 2.

Race 9

NO Pride of Jenni takes away any interest of me maybe having a bet. It has left Autumn Glow to lead. And win. Ceowulf will run 2nd and with the blinkers on id imagine he will go to the Cox Plate next. Enjoy the race.

Race 10 | 3. Cross Tasman

I wanted to take this bloke on from the bad gate with the heavy weight but scratchings have made this a lot more manageable for him. He has the form around Decorum who has a chance in a better race earlier in the day. Blinkers go on 3rd up which work and he enjoys the sting out of the track. He does have to carry the weight but he has a superstar jockey to guide him through it. Stays at 1400 and once he gets a backside, he will be too good here. Ertijaaj is the danger. Well drawn and enjoys the soft with little weight but it's a class rise and a half and I think Cross Tasman has the class to handle her and the rest of them today!

David Taggart

CAULFIELD

Race 1 | 6. Russian Rock

Has a different form line than the top 5 coming out of the Stutt Stks. Is clearly looking for this trip and gets the services of Willow for the first time who should give him a peach from an inside gate.

Race 3 | 1. Geegees Mistruth (Best)

Won’t know herself dropping significantly in grade, 3rd up where she’s missed a place once. Has been good in both G1 runs this prep and she does look better than these with the blinkers going on for the first time. Yet to win at Caulfield and that should change.

Race 5 | 1. Private Eye (Best)

Is the best horse in the race who will find this easier than recent runs this prep. Draws perfect to do no work and he loves racing at Caulfield. He may also take a seat here and sit off Williadow in the run. Should just be too good for them.

Race 6 | 1. Sweynesday (Value)

Resumes for his new stable and he just looks way over the odds. Is G1 placed behind Jigsaw winning 2/4 first up and looks ready to go off his trials. Will get back and watch for him late.

RANDWICK

Race 2 | 10. Cloudy Scout (Value)

Goes up a lot in grade like the majority of these runners after her handy debut run behind Unhinged who came out and won impressively on Wednesday. Draws perfect and will just settle just off the speed. Worth a little EW play.

Race 6 | 7. Beadman

Makes his way back up north after a disappointing run in the Manikato as he could never make up ground when back last. He was huge first up and will handle the conditions. Draws a mid gate so he won’t get as far back in the run as he has been. ZP rides and he can go close.

Race 8 | 3. Skyhook (Best)

Has returned in great order smashing his rivals in both runs this prep. Does drop back in trip which won’t be a worry as it will race further given the heavy track where he is undefeated from 2. His last win on the heavy was a G3 over winter by well over 3.

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