Group 1 Gurus: Who to back in the Cox Plate & why?

Here we are. One of the most prestigious Group 1s in the Australian racing calendar!

The 2040m weight-for-age W.S. Cox Plate takes place this Saturday, but it will be located at the Flemington Racecourse due to the multi-million dollar redevelopment of its traditional home, Moonee Valley.

Worth $6 million, the Cox Plate was previously won by Via Sistina in both 2025 and 2024, Romantic Warrior (2023), Anamoe (2022), and State Of Rest (2021).

With Via Sistina now retired, let’s see who can take the Cox Plate mantle from her.

Sir Delius is the current favourite for the race, but the market suggests this year’s edition of the prestigious Group 1 is wide open.

Check out our tips and predictions for the Cox Plate below!

Cox Plate

Winner: COSMIC CRUSADER

Top 4: Cosmic Crusader | Sir Delius | Warwoven | Ceolwulf

Why: This is such a hard race to tip. You can make a case for nearly every horse in the race.

I’m going to tip Cosmic Crusader, based off his Turnbull Stakes victory against majority of the horses in this field, but I’m not sold. The WA gun will now be seventh-up and ran in a hard-run Caulfield Cup last week. Now dropping back down 360m, that poses queries as well. Disregarding that though, if Cosmic Crusader hasn’t had too much taken out of him, he should deliver a mighty race here.

Sir Delius isn’t as going good as last spring or the autumn. Horse is a freak though, should be a top 4 lock.

After a dominant Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas victory, Warwoven has proved that he is the class three-year-old in the country. 2000m should be no worries as well for this colt. Also, the fact he is carrying 49.5kg, he could very well win here. Only query is the Flemington track.

Ceolwulf is absolutely peaking, and he is primed to win his first race this preparation. Drawn barrier 3, which is perfect, however, the Cox Plate isn’t a mile race, and it has only won once from five starts at the distance. Class should carry the Wulf into the top 4 here, but I don’t think he can win.

Aeliana can also run well but given the Waller stable were originally targeting the Melbourne Cup as her Grand Final, this is an afterthought Grand Final for her. Pass.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: BIRDMAN

Top 4: Birdman | Ceolwulf | Blind Raise | Cosmic Crusader

Why: Birdman, having taken out the Group 1 Underwood Stakes two starts back, found himself leading the peloton behind Land Legend and Kingswood in the Might And Power and only Sheza Alibi finished off with better sectionals. He also toppled Kingswood who, as we know, followed up with a Caulfield Cup win. He would be as fit as a fiddle after that run and I am taking on Land Legend at HQ as we have seen him fold up at the track with the daunting long straight. Expect Birdman to be storming to the line.

Birdman won't be alone, though. Two of my other top four selections in Ceolwulf and Cosmic Crusader will also be suited by a hot tempo set by the Legend and Light Infantry Man and will be coming with Birdman in the dying stages. The 'Wulf' is ready to pop and is one from one at Flemington. I only put Birdman ahead becasue of the difference in price in the market ($12 v $6.50 with Sportsbet) which is way overs for the Birdman who I think should be even with the Joe Pride gelding.

Out of the two three-year-old's, give me Blind Raise. I loved how confident Jamie Melham sounded at the barrier draw and with just 49.5kgs on his back, he can fling from gate 9 into a favourable spot behind the pace. I would be surprised if he holds off the swoopers in the finish, but I have faith that he will stick on well and will suit the 2040m better than Warwoven.

It's impossible to pick a top four here and not look like a fool. I've painfully left out Sir Delius, Aeliana and Saint George (whom I love and would not be a disappointing result for me), but I am like my four and their preperations better than the others.

What a race, soak it up at Flemington for the only time (as long as construction timelines remain on track) and don't get caught up in the naysayers trying to talk down the race because of the inclusions of Middle Earth and Attrition.

Chris Waller's seventh Cox Plate - the equal most with TJ Smith - is beckoning and I would love the rollicking Birdman to deliver it for the legendary trainer.

Ethan Clark

Winner: CEOLWULF

Top 4: Ceolwulf | Sir Delius | Aeliana | Light Infantry Man

Why: The expected speed set by Land Legend and also Light Infantry Man might set this up well for Ceolwulf.

He backs up after running second to Autmun Glow in the King Charles at Randwick last weekend. His fitness is humming, Everest winner Chad Schofield is seeing them well and Joe Pride will have him finely tuned.

If the pace is on then the Wulf should get a great chance to sit off the sped then come over the top of them. Great each-way chance.

Can’t discount Sir Delius who has been set for this. Is a third-up beast and is drawn nicely in 5. Can he give Gai that elusive Cox Plate?

James McDonald is chasing a fifth straight Cox Plate so you trust he is on the right horse in Aeliana. Should run well.

The big value injection is Light Infantry Man who can chase Land Legend in a truly run 2040m and be strong late. Ciaron Maher training rocking horses to win at the moment.

Andrew Slevison

We also analysed the other Group 1 of Saturday’s Raceday – the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m), which takes place at Randwick Racecourse.

Check out our tips and predictions for the Spring Champion Stakes below!

Spring Champion Stakes

Winner: PROXIMA DEA

Top 4: Proxima Dea | Global Goal | Scarole | Wonka

Why: I’m going to go with the form out of the Gloaming Stakes here.

Proxima Dea is four wins from four starts, and her last two victories were at 1800m. And in her last start – the Gloaming Stakes – she was excellent through the line, suggesting 2000m shouldn’t be an issue for her at all. This filly has a winning mentality and should be around the mark.

Global Goal was excellent in the Flight Stakes, winning impressively across 1600m, and running very well through the line. 2000m shouldn’t be a worry for her but would prefer Proxima Dea.

Circling back to the Gloaming Stakes, Scarole and Wonka ran third and second, respectively. Both should run well again here.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: SCAROLE

Top 4: Scarole | Global Goal | Proxima Dea | Wonka

Why: This Ciaron Maher colt Scarole is just as talented as the favourite, in my opinion, and it shapes up nicely for the step up in distance with a lot left in the tank after the line in the Group 3 Gloaming.

Obviously Proxima Dea is a gun and has never lost but stepping up to 2000m is clearly a variable that could bring about a sneaky upset. Global Goal's coming out of the Group 1 Flight Stakes and is a strong chance to finish over the top of Scarole and Dea, but something is calling me and telling me it is a Scarole day.

Wonka is the value bet here having finished alongside Scarole, Stormy Marco and Proxima Dea in the Gloaming and he rounds out a very close and interchangeable top four here.

If you are willing to take on the undefeated Proxima Dea, then there is some nice value in the rest of this incredibly even and competitive field.

But no one will be surprised if Maher takes out his sixth Group 1 of the season and that pushes me towards Scarole!

Ethan Clark

Winner: PROXIMA DEA

Top 4: Proxima Dea | Global Goal | Wonka | Scarole

Why: Proxima Dea is an absolute line-chaser who knows how to win.

Her victories of late have been extraordinary and she now stretches out to a more suitable distance. Excellent price. David Payne has trained two Spring Champion winners in the last nine years.

Global Goal the clear and present danger for John Sargent. Can certainly win.

Have to throw Chris Waller's Wonka in after he was knocked off narrowly by Proxima Dea, and also Scarole whose form ties in and has the Ciaron Maher factor.

Andrew Slevison

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