Group 1 Gurus: Who to back in the Oaks & why?

It's ladies day at Flemington as the carnival rolls on!

The Crown Oaks headlines a nice card of racing as the weather seems to be holding off in Melbourne.

The 2500m three-year-old fillies race seems to be quite top heavy this year with four clear stand-outs in the market; Proxima Dea, De Armas, Icelady & Quick Finish.

Worth $1 million, previous winners include Strictly Business (2025), Treasurethe Moment (2024), Zardozi (2023), She's Extreme (2022), Willowy (2021) & Personal (2020).

Check out our tips and predictions for the Oaks below!

VRC OAKS

Winner: QUICK FINISH

Top 4: Quick Finish | Proxima Dea | Icelady | De Armas

Why: Quick Finish ran super in the Derby, finishing inside the placings. That run showed that she can absolutely hack the 2500m distance, and should be able to replicate that performance here. She may have too much juice taken out of her from that run, but if she doesn’t, she presents a good value option here.

Proxima Dea is the obvious horse to beat. Sydney form has been outstanding, and is unbeaten from five races. In the Group 1 Spring Champions Stakes (2000m), she won with ease.

Barrier 19 will be the only thing stopping her from winning. Icelady looks a good staying horse. She finished third in the Wakeful due to not having a huge turn of foot in the finish, but it stuck on well. She should run well here. Place chance.

I’m wary of tipping the winner of the Wakeful, given Getta Good Feeling won that race last year then disappointed in the Oaks. De Armas will be around the mark, but following last year’s pattern, I can’t have it on top.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: DE ARMAS

Top 4: De Armas | Icelady | Proxima Dea | Quick Finish

Usually the best form coming into this race is from the Wakeful and De Armas was a very impressive winner in that contest. I think she will run really strong again.

Continuing on with some Wakeful form reference, Icelady set the pace last Saturday and was gallant in defeat. Interested to see the jump to 2500m, but Quick Finish’s pace should help.

Proxima Dea is the unbeaten favourite in this field boasting five wins from five starts, I think she runs into a situation too difficult today as she will need so much luck from the widest barrier. She will run well, but unless she is a future superstar, I don’t think she can win.

Quick Finish is an honest horse, on the pace and just has a knack for finding the line. But backing up from a derby into an Oaks hasn’t been done since Lycra in 1990 and it didn’t go well. A task too tall in my opinion.

Jasper Cormick

Winner: PROXIMA DEA

Top 4: Proxima Dea | De Armas | Quick Finish | Icelady

Why: Keeping this pretty simple by putting the favourite Proxima Dea on top.

You could be scared away by the wide draw, but sometimes it’s just best to side with the best horse in a race. She kept the Derby winner Stormy Marco at bay in the Spring Champion last time out.

Zac Lloyd should be able to float across from 15, sit just off the speed, finish off strongly and make it six wins on the trot.

De Armas is clearly the danger. Drawn nicely to get an economical run and he finished off well in the Wakeful. J-Mac and Waller too…

Quick Finish looks a good value play. Third in the Derby as the sole filly in the race against the colts.

Icelady next. Seems a clear-cut top four with some luck.

Andrew Slevison

Winner: DE ARMAS

Top 4: De Armas | Quick Finish | Icelady | Shameful Impulse

Why: I wanted to have Quick Finish top here but, as we saw last start, leaders rarely hold on up the Flemington straight in staying races, especially on day three on this track this carnival including the Cox Plate, so I'll put De Armas on top to back up her impressive Wakeful win.

Chris Waller and James McDonald will never become less appealing and barrier one will allow JMac to put her to sleep before peeling out and showing that turn of foot to come over the top of them.

Icelady is in a similar boat to Quick Finish as a leader who I think way better than most in this field but may find De Armas too sharp, while I've thrown in Shameful Impulse as one of the only roughies I give a chance after hitting the line strongly in the Wakeful and seeming to have plenty left in the tank. Plus, Willie Pike in the saddle gives me the confidence that she will get a plum ride from barrier seven.

Speaking of barriers, you may have noticed the lack of Proxima Dea and the second widest draw is to blame for that. Stepping up to 2500m and drawing the carpark will mean Zac Lloyd, who is a gun jockey but not necessarily proven at Flemington yet, will need to work some magic to come across and find a spot in running. If he decides to take her forward, goodnight, but if taken back then I still think she will hit the line strong.

Ethan Clark

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