It’s far too early to predict how teams will perform in 2023, but we can set expectations and give some preliminary thoughts at the very least.
Setting a wins threshold for a team requires a few different factors: How they performed in 2022, how they performed in previous years, off-season additions and subtractions and a general vibe coming off the 2022 season and entering 2023.
We have gone through the top eight teams of last season to set lines and made an early guess as to whether they will cover or not next year.
NOTE: These projections are based on a 22-game season.
Kane Cornes set lines for the bottom 10 AFL teams, which is why we're focusing on the top eight.
See our thoughts below:
Over/Under: 17.5
Geelong won 18 games in 2022 and then dominated the finals series en route to a premiership. They then got better in the trade period, adding young talent and a top 10 draft pick.
Of course, winning 18/22 games is not easy and the question will be whether the Cats’ older core can do it again having just climbed the mountain.
16-17 wins would still be an incredible season and could even win them the minor premiership, but 17.5 is a tough benchmark to clear.
Expect the Cats to once again be amongst the top four and the contenders, but our projection is still the unders.
SEN.com.au consensus: Under
Over/Under: 13.5
As we discussed previously, the curse of a Grand Final belting is real. Can the Swans overcome history and continue their upward trajectory?
Improvement isn’t always linear and the Swans have had two years spiking hard and are coming off a quiet trade period. We’ve set their over/under at 13.5, anticipating that they once again make the eight.
The question will be whether they can get to the 16-win mark from 2022 once again and return to the final Saturday in September.
SEN.com.au consensus: Over
Over/Under: 15.5
Brisbane won 15 games in 2022 and have been around that mark for a few years now. With the additions of Josh Dunkley, Jack Gunston and number one pick Will Ashcroft, it’s hard to imagine that changing.
They’ve had their defensive issues, but they are a potent attacking side and now have new weapons to play with. It’s hard to imagine the Lions not being at least as good in 2023, hence the 15.5 line.
Of course, it’s a tough line to clear and in a tight one, we have projected them to just miss on the line while remaining a contender.
SEN.com.au consensus: Under
Over/Under: 13.5
How on earth do you set a line for a Collingwood team that rose from 17th to a Preliminary Final, riding one of the stranger seasons in recent memory?
They start 2-0, should have beaten Geelong and then lost to West Coast. The Magpies win 11 games decided by two goals or less and then ride that momentum deep into September.
Naturally, they will not win that many close games in 2023. Do they simply improve and start blowing teams out? Or do they regress in tight contests with teams working out their slingshot style? Who knows.
13.5, implying they make the eight, feels like the right line, but again, who knows.
SEN.com.au consensus: Under
Over/Under: 13.5
Fremantle feels like they could be a swing team in 2023. Do they continue to ride this upward trajectory as a young team and push up the ladder, or do they return to the middle of the pack, with a lack of firepower forward of the ball hurting them?
We’ve set the Dockers’ line at 13.5. Expectation for Freo should be to once again play finals, but it doesn’t necessarily feel like the year they leap into the top four.
Assuming it all goes to plan and they get natural improvement from their talented young core, anything is really possible for Fremantle in 2023.
SEN.com.au consensus: Over
Over/Under: 16.5
At a glance, 16.5 may seem high for Melbourne, but they did start the year 10-0 before falling into a steakhouse-brawl-fuelled hole. It’s hard to imagine the 2021 premiers not rebounding next year.
They got significantly better in the trade period too. Brodie Grundy is an upgrade on Luke Jackson in 2023 and Lachie Hunter could be a sneaky great addition opposite Ed Langdon.
At this stage, Melbourne should go into next season as one of the premiership favourites and with a chip on their shoulders to prove they belong back on top of the mountain.
SEN.com.au consensus: Over
Over/Under: 14.5
Richmond would have comfortably covered a 14.5 line in 2022 had they not lost the unlosable on multiple occasions. In the end, they shot themselves in the foot too often and it cost them.
They enter 2023 with a pair of gun midfield additions in Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto and they will (hopefully) have a fit and firing Dustin Martin back in the mix. The Tiger era has stuttered in recent years, but it is by no means over.
If Richmond has a clean run at it next season, it’s hard imaging they don’t win more games than they did this year.
SEN.com.au consensus: Over
Over/Under: 13.5
The Western Bulldogs went from one of the dominant teams of 2021 to scraping into the eight a year later. What does the future hold for them?
They’ve added Liam Jones and Rory Lobb to an incredibly talented list, filling key roles around an already deep midfield. Throw in another year into Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy and 2023 could be a boom year for the sons of the West.
Of course, the Bulldogs remain a wildcard. They have one of the strangest coaches in the league and outside of 2016 and 2021, have underperformed against the talent on their list.
SEN.com.au consensus: Under