How the 2024 AFL landscape changed so sharply in just a month

What we thought we knew six weeks ago versus how things have played out in this season of rapid rises and sharp falls.

When almost 2000 of you took on the challenge of the ladder predictor six weeks ago there were 493,920 possible combinations for the composition of the eight.

Here’s what we thought we knew…

SEE ALL THE DATA HERE

97.6% of you locked Sydney into the minor premiership and have been proven correct.

More than 88% of us had Carlton finishing either second or third – exactly 0 had the Blues falling to eighth. Dig a little deeper and more people had the Blues finishing 1st than 8th.

90.7% of respondents had the Brisbane Lions in the Top 4 – a marker they now seem destined to miss.

One of the Port Adelaide and the Giants will finish second – 0.1% had the Power in that position… 0.4% believed the Giants were capable of ascending to that perch.

89.9% of our predicters had Fremantle 3rd, 4th or 5th – it was in no-one’s mind that the Dockers would miss the eight.

A slight majority had the Bulldogs qualifying for the Finals – they might still need one more win to prove 52.5% of people right.

I was particularly heartened to see 35.5% of us had the imagination for the Hawthorn making the eight.

While Essendon had a base vote of 40% to be playing finals rather than preparing for holidays.

Even from a seemingly small target of six weeks to go it’s been a season that has defied expectation and prediction.

And while I know there are well worn and historically proven patterns in the finals series I don’t see why the business end would conform rather than continue the sheer unpredictability of what we’ve experienced.

And that’s jumping ahead… who knows what surprises are in store for Round 24.