The 4 certainties for GWS versus Brisbane

Back for another year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.

Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.

But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.

Here is what we consider certainties for the Semi-Final between GWS and Brisbane

GWS

Green 25+ disposals

Tom Green has enjoyed playing against Brisbane in 2024.

The star midfielder has picked up 65 disposals across the two wins against the Lions this season, with tallies of 37 and 28 respectively.

Even if he has a quiet game, 25+ should be well within his reach, a number he’s reached in ALL of his last 16 games.

Something would have to go pretty wrong for him not to pass this marker. He’s also had 30 or more in 16 of his 24 games this season for those that are feeling adventurous.

Greene 2+ goals

Toby Greene has been a little out of sorts recently and only kicked 0.2 to go with 12 touches in last week’s Qualifying Final loss.

He’ll be ready to bounce back in a big way, he’s also kicked two or more goals in eight of his last 10 games.

With his team’s season on the line, you can expect Greene to insert himself into the contest.

He’ll surely have a couple of shots on goal and should finish two at home.

Lachlan Geleit

Brisbane

Ashcroft 20+ disposals

Since returning from an ACL injury in his rookie season, Will Ashcroft has been a key part of the Lions midfield. 

That return came in Round 17, and since then the midfielder has averaged 21.8 disposals and has only gone under the 20 disposal mark three times. 

He has now hit his stride and is in some great form, including a 30 disposal outing against Essendon and a 29 disposal win against GWS in round 23.

Ashcroft has also recorded 20+ disposals in each of Brisbane's last four matches. 

We expect the young gun to relish the opportunity and occasion and be a big part of the Lions' midfield in their Semi-Final clash against GWS.

Rayner 15+ disposals

Cam Rayner is enjoying a successful 2024 season and is averaging a career high 15.5 disposals.

The powerful hybrid option has recorded at least 15 disposals in all of Brisbane’s last six away games. He's also covered the 15 disposal mark in seven of his last eight games, including their last encounter with GWS in Round 22.

Rayner has enjoyed playing half-forward this year and has also featured in Brisbane’s midfield in spurts.

With the Lions will desperate to reach the final day in September after falling just short last season, we expect Rayner to step up and easily cover the 15+ disposal mark.

Noah Desta

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