The UPC Showdown Roughie Report: Top 3 picks for the Caulfield Cup and The Everest

Racing at Caulfield & Randwick is the focus this weekend.

See below the Roughie Report thanks to The Leg Up and UPC Showdown.

And make sure you sign up for the UPC Showdown for your chance to win.

The Everest Top 3

Nick Lloyd

1st: JOLIESTAR - She’s been my top seed for a while and I have to stick fat after the barrier draw (4). She won the Arrowfield Sprint in the Autumn which was her only run, and beat a number of subsequent winners there, before returning in the spring with a dominant win in the Show County. We’ve seen the Manikato Stakes, Premiere Stakes & Theo Marks Stakes winners come through that run franking the form. She had a flat run second-up, which is typical for the stable after a peak first-up, so I expect her to bounce back here and give Waller a third Everest.

2nd: STEFI MAGNETICA - She brings the same form line as last year’s winner Think About It having won the Stradbroke Handicap in Queensland. She was dynamic first-up over 1100m when a bit stiff behind I Am Me, and she’s since looked sharp in a recent trial. She’s a mare on the up, she’s got an electric turn of foot and has a jockey brimming with confidence in Zac Lloyd, so she can take the next step and win this.

3rd: SUNSHINE IN PARIS - I’m all about the girls this year. Sunshine In Paris was arrogant when going back-to-back in the Sheraco Stakes 35 days ago, where she beat Joliestar. Fresh is best for her, so the stable have really nursed her along to this Grand Final after going amiss 12 months ago when hard in the market for The Everest. She trialled brilliantly last week, has a suitable barrier draw and will relish the pressure of an Everest.

Blake Johnston

1st: TRAFFIC WARDEN – He let rip first-up to win and then was a touch slow to begin when up in trip in the Golden Rose. He was going to hold off his stablemate but just peaked on his effort in the final 100m. He brings the best last start figure into the race and this is grand final day, so we can expect a peak performance from him. Maps to receive every possible chance.

2nd: STEFI MAGNETICA – Wasn’t suited by the slow tempo first-up but you could argue that she should have won. She was held-up until the 400m but liked her close over the concluding stages. She’s handled fast races in the past and although she will be giving them all a start, she will be hard to hold out.

3rd: JOLIESTAR – She bolted in first-up on a slow tempo when she just travelled into the race and looked the winner a long way from home. She then wasn’t the same horse second-up in a fast race when off the bit a long way from home. James McDonald sticks and if she can reproduce what she did first-up on a stronger tempo, she will be hard to hold out.

Caulfield Cup Top 3

Nick Lloyd

1st: ZARDOZI - She’s a box ticker in this year’s Caulfield Cup. She will relish the 2400m, she gets in light with 51kg, meeting Land Legend 3kg better for a 0.1L beaten margin in the Metropolitan a fortnight ago and she will enjoy the sting out of the track. World-class hoop Andrea Atzeni has travelled out for the lightweight ride, and she should get a gun run from a middle draw. She can stamp herself as a genuine local Melbourne Cup contender with a win here.

2nd: DENY KNOWLEDGE - She’s on the 7-day back-up after winning the Might And Power Stakes at Weight-For-Age last Saturday. She led all the way there and caused an upset over Mr Brightside. Now, she drops 6.5kg, will go forward and make her own luck, and if the track favours those on speed, she could take running down. The 2400m and wet conditions are a query, but at the weights I have to include her.

3rd: DUKE DE SESSA - He’s been ticking along nicely this prep, coming off consecutive Group 1 fourths. He’s in with 52kg - 1kg less than last year in a tougher edition where he was one of the runs of the race from the back of the pack. Ciaron Maher is a master with these stayers, Harry Coffey is a gun, and he’ll put himself in the first half of the field from the good draw. He’s the blowout.

Blake Johnston

1st: ZARDOZI – Thought she was outstanding last start when she covered extra ground in The Metropolitan and hit the front a long way from home, reckon she was in front of LAND LEGEND a stride before and stride after the post. She’s in well at the weights and gets a 2kg weight swing on ELIYASS from the Kingston Town Stakes and meets LAND LEGEND 4kg better (including Zac Purton riding 1kg over) for the narrow last start margin. You can also tie her form in through BUCKAROO who she beat home in the Winx Stakes, meets him 1kg better at the weights and started shorter than him in the market. Although she hasn’t been to Caulfield, she has ticked the anti-clockwise box winning an Edward Manifold and VRC Oaks, both at Flemington. I think she should be favourite after the draw and did tick the heavy track box early in her career.

2nd: LAND LEGEND – He fought back to beat ZARDOZI last start and although she meets him better at the weights, he was only early in his campaign and should have more to come. He draws low and should receive every possible chance from the alley. Has won both starts in Australia over more than or equal to 2400m and should be at his peak now with one of the world’s best hoops in the saddle (Zac Purton) who will ride him 1kg over his allotted weight.

3rd: ELIYASS – He hasn’t done much wrong in his short time in Australia and has a terrific overall record, winning 9 from 12. He won a red-hot form race two back (Kingston Town Stakes) beating the Epsom winner (Ceolwulf) and The Metropolitan quinella (LAND LEGEND & ZARDOZI) who finished fifth and sixth. Sat on a strong speed last time out and was clearly the best of the on-pacers in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Draws poorly but Incentivise drew the outside when he won it.

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