Trav Noonan: Why Big Sky will struggle to win the Blue Diamond

Big Sky is currently the $4.50 favourite with Sportsbet to win the Group 1 Blue Diamond (1200m) on February 21, alongside stablemate Guest House.

The Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr colt most recently won the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes (1000m) by 3 lengths on Saturday at Caulfield and was ridden by top hoop Ben Melham.

This victory sparked a conversation between RSN form analysts Nick and Trav Noonan, dissecting whether or not Big Sky can win the $2 million two-year-old sprint.

See their answers below:

Nick Noonan

“I think he can, yeah, I'm saying he can,” Nick told RSN’s Correct Weight.

“If he can relax a bit better early in his races, and I think it might come down to having something to chase just to help him a little bit better.

“I'd have Guest House still clearly on top, and I probably wouldn't have them the same price in betting.

“I'd probably be more $4 (for Guest House) and $6 (for Big Sky).

“But I think he can (win), yeah.”

Trav Noonan

“I don't think he can win a Blue Diamond, no,” Trav admitted.

“I worry a little bit that he would lack the race craft for a 1200m, (he may) burn up early and just get over-racing.

“He got over-racing again there (on Saturday).

“I think they've got some options in terms of gear that they could use, maybe a crossover noseband.

“Ben Melham’s a top jockey. He's a very good rider in terms of getting horses to settle in the early stages.

“He'll no doubt be doing a lot of work with the Price-Kent stable with that horse to try and get him to settle a bit better.

“He clearly left something in the locker there (on Saturday), but it's just a different ball game.

“When you go to 1200m, with a big field like the Blue Diamond is, you always have at least 14 runners, you just never see a Blue Diamond run slowly.

“They're always run at a helter-skelter pace, so I just think horses like Guest House, even a horse like High Alert, maybe even the horse down from Sydney, Eviction Notice, just a few horses like that that I'd have from a betting perspective in front of Big Sky.”

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