Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 22, 2026

Round 22 is here ALREADY!

The Dogs host the Roos at Marvel to kick things off in a game they must win to keep their top six hopes alive.

Brisbane hosts Hawthorn at the Gabba in a Friday night blockbuster with massive top four repercussions.

The Demons v Dockers at the MCG is the pick of the four Saturday fixtures before St Kilda and Carlton wrap it up with a wildcard-defining clash on Sunday night.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

WESTERN BULLDOGS V NORTH MELBOURNE

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

It might not have been a perfect season for the Dogs, but they remain well and truly in the hunt for a top six spot. Just four points outside of the safety zone, their recent struggle for form against the top sides could be the difference between safety and Wildcard. A 37-point loss to Fremantle wasn’t all doom and gloom, with the Dockers firing home late as they have done all season. However, after an admirable win over Hawthorn in Round 13, the Dogs have failed to knock off a side within the top 10.

Another season of almost for Alastair Clarkson and the Kangaroos. Almost entirely out of Wildcard contention, North Melbourne have only won once against a top 10 side – that side being Carlton amid their seven-game losing streak. After beating Essendon in Round 16, the Roos have lost five straight, and although they haven’t been blown out by any means, their winless run could spell the end of their season. A 16-point loss against the Hawks in Tassie was certainly a better effort, and a season-reviving win is now an absolute must.

This is exactly the fixture that Luke Beveridge would have circled in his calendar. Over the last two seasons, no side has performed better against lowly opposition than the Bulldogs. Adding that onto their nine-match win streak over the Roos, this has the potential to get ugly if North Melbourne doesn’t respond. However, the Kangaroos won’t fold over too easily - it’s hard to deny their evident ability to remain in games far better than they have in past years, and this will be no different. That said, the Dogs should still get this one done.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 22 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

BRISBANE V HAWTHORN

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - GABBA

Just when you thought all the Lions’ problems were behind them, they dish ‘that’ up – ‘that’ being a loss of 76 points to Carlton. It was a 135-point turnaround from their 59-point win over the Power – a volatile swing. But if there’s any coach that can guide his side back to form it’s Chris Fagan and his back-to-back premiers. They’ve quite often been good at bouncing back from adversity. They get another chance in a home Friday night blockbuster.

It’s a double milestone game for Brisbane who have premiership pair Ryan Lester (250 games) and Jarrod Berry (200 games) to celebrate.

Lester has overcome a shoulder injury to play, alongside Hugh McCluggage (calf) and Logan Morris (corkie), while Darcy Gardiner (hamstring) could return and Dayne Zorko (managed) will play.

The Hawks made it four victories on the trot with a hard-fought 16-point result over North Melbourne in their final Tassie game of 2026. That kept them in pole position to secure a top-four slot with a six-point advantage over the Crows in fourth, tonight’s opponents the Lions and the Demons in sixth. If Sam Mitchell’s side can pull one off here then their double chance hopes will boost significantly.

They could have Mitch Lewis back from concussion which is a major boost while Karl Amon and Ned Reeves are both a chance of returning from issues.

It could be described as a rollercoaster of a campaign for the Lions. They started slowly, found form, fell horribly, returned to their best with seven straight wins, and now we find them here. The Hawks have been solid throughout, apart from a three-week mid-season blip. They haven’t won at the Gabba since 2016, losing in three attempts since including round 24 last year by 10 points. It’s a tricky affair to dissect but we’ll side with Brissie mainly for the recoil factor.

Prediction: Brisbane by 10 points.

Andrew Slevison

MELBOURNE V FREMANTLE

Saturday - 1:15pm AEST - MCG

Having suffered their first loss at the MCG at the hands of Geelong, the Demons would be hellbent on redeeming their grasp on a home ground advantage over a travelling Fremantle. The threat of slipping into a wildcard spot looms large after such an impressive season largely spent at the upper echelons of the table.

A win here would prove to themselves, more than anyone, that they genuinely belong in those reaches. There is nothing to lose here for Melbourne; a loss would bring minimal backlash, and a win would bring high acclaim. Scalps don’t get any bigger than Freo, and the Demons would smell blood.

With the minor premiership locked away, these become an interesting few weeks for Justin Longmuir and his men. Do they persist full-steam ahead or manage their way through until the finals begin? Either way, the imposition of facing Freo is still just as prevalent, and they are showing no signs of slowing down.

If things go to plan, this would be the final dress rehearsal for Fremantle at the MCG in a day game on a Saturday before Grand Final day, so don’t be surprised if they treat this as such and put together a finals-like showing.

Whether you believe the Demons have more to play for, or that the Dockers need to capitalise on every MCG chance they get, this shapes as a belter of a clash between two impressive outfits. This year’s Pink Lady Match is one of the more enthralling in recent times, and the result is telling for the Demons.

There are a few games left this season that will give the flavour of finals, and this will definitely be one of them. Melbourne will prove difficult to nullify on their home deck, but Freo has natural talent that is inarguable and should get them over the line.

Prediction: Fremantle by 11 points.

Ethan Clark

SYDNEY V PORT ADELAIDE

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - SCG

This was close last time, but things have changed a lot in less than two months.

Sydney have found recaptured form in the last fortnight, beating Wildcard challengers GWS and St Kilda to prove they’re a real contender in 2026.

The Swans are firing from an attacking point of view, although their defence could do with some tightening up having leaked scores of 87 or more in each of their last four games. The Swans still sit outright second by two points heading into the round and have their eyes firmly placed on an all-important top two finish.

Port Adelaide are still putting up a solid fight in 2026, although the injury curse is simply too hard to ignore now. With stars out everywhere, the Power have done well to compete in most games this campaign, although this one is surely too far out of their reach.

Entering the round in 15th, no one would blame Port for waving the white flag on their campaign and simply moving on to planning for 2027 and beyond.

While Port Adelaide got within a kick of Sydney when the teams met in just Round 14, don’t expect this one to play out in a similar fashion. That contest was at the Adelaide Oval compared to the SCG, while the likes of the now sidelined Zak Butters had a huge say in keeping his team competitive.

Even though the Swans are down a couple of key names too, they have the advantage on paper on every line and should simply overwhelm Josh Carr’s side, particularly at home.

Prediction: Sydney by 38 points.

Lachlan Geleit

GEELONG V ESSENDON

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium

Geelong remains within touching distance of a top six spot following their win against the Magpies to open Round 21. That marks their third win in a row, with all of these victories coming against sides that are likely to be in the top ten, which sees the Cats building their form at the right time of the season. The Cats are expected to see the return of Patrick Dangerfield after being managed during last week’s clash.

With the Tigers getting the job done against West Coast, the Bombers returned to last place following their 72-point loss to Adelaide. That marks their 18th loss for the season, leaving them one defeat away from matching the club record for most losses in a single season. The club will have to make at least one change, with defender Angus Clarke being ruled out of the match with a concussion.

It’s been 36 years since the Bombers last defeated Geelong at Kardinia Park. The Cats have also won nine of their last ten matchups between the two sides, which makes this clash feel like a foregone conclusion. With Geelong winning the majority, if not all, of the player head-to-heads in this clash, they should cruise to their fourth win in a row.

Prediction: Geelong by 42 points

Nicholas Quinlan

ADELAIDE V RICHMOND

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

Adelaide is searching for a top 4 spot, and they will be desperate to annihilate Richmond on their home deck at Adelaide Oval.

Currently sitting at 4th on the ladder, the Crows are equal on points with Brisbane (5th) and Melbourne (6th) and are one game ahead of Geelong (7th) and the Western Bulldogs (8th). While finishing third or above is highly improbable for each of those teams, they will each be gunning for the coveted double-chance, making the race for fourth place very intriguing.

Given that, Adelaide is expected to thrash the Tigers here, and it won’t be pretty. The Crows just demolished Essendon by 72 points, and they have won 10 of their last 13 matchups, only losing to Hawthorn at Tasmania, a Showdown, which was essentially Port Adelaide’s Grand Final, and a tough Collingwood outfit.

In fact, Adelaide has conceded the second least points in the competition (1582), with only the ladder-leading Fremantle bettering them (1346). Conversely for the Tigers, they have conceded the second most points (2083) and scored the least out of the entire AFL this season (1308). Based off these stats, this game will only go one way – Richmond being completely outclassed by the Crows.

More concerningly for the Tigers, form is also against them when playing opponents ranked in the top eight, losing each of their last 15 matches to top eight opponents. That dire streak should absolutely be extended here.

Expect Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine and Riley Thilthorpe to have another day out like they did last week against the Bombers, and the Crows to give their fans yet another reason to cheer about at Adelaide Oval.

Prediction: Adelaide by 57 points.

Connor Scanlon

GWS V GOLD COAST

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - Manuka Oval

The Giants' topsy-turvy season remains alive after getting the job done against Port Adelaide last week. They sit one game outside the wildcard positions and must keep winning to stay in the hunt. With a favourable two-week stretch ahead, a finals berth remains a genuine possibility despite a lengthy injury list. There could be some relief with skipper Toby Greene expected to return from a calf injury. Toby McMullin starred in the VFL and is pushing for a recall, while Jake Riccardi is also in contention after returning from an ankle injury last week.

The Suns pushed the Demons all the way last Sunday. Recent weeks have shown signs they are building towards a breakthrough victory, but the losing streak has now stretched to 10 games. They were left to rue their inefficiency after establishing a lead and gaining the ascendancy through the midfield. Young gun Zeke Uwland was rested last week and is expected to return for the trip to Canberra. Vice-captain Sam Collins will give himself every chance to play after failing to finish Sunday's game following a heavy fall.

The Giants' fate in season 2026 remains in their own hands, provided they keep winning. They were beaten by the Suns earlier this year despite winning 11 of the previous 13 meetings between the expansion rivals, and will be out to make amends. A return to Canberra, where they remain unbeaten this season, should tip the scales in their favour, keep their finals hopes alive and extend the battle for 10th spot for at least another week.

Prediction: Giants by 19 points.

Jono Baruch

WEST COAST V COLLINGWOOD

Sunday - 4:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium

Both teams enter this matchup wanting to right the wrongs of last week.

Collingwood ran out to fireworks and ‘Heads Will Roll’ instead of their traditional theme song but were unable to bring the same energy to the field. Geelong blitzed past the Pies in the early stages of the game and couldn’t be reeled in. To add insult to injury, Jeremy Howe and Harry Perryman both suffered injuries during the match and will miss this week.

West Coast didn’t have much luck at the MCG either and were incredibly wasteful in front of goal. Jake Waterman has copped his fair share of criticism after he kicked 2.6. This has become an issue for the All-Australian who has had 103 shots on goal this season but only managed 43 goals so far with a 42% scoring accuracy.

It wasn’t just Waterman though, the whole team had a severe case of the yips and Eagles fans will be expecting a big response at home. There’s no doubt that the hunger is there as evidenced by an emotional Willem Duursma following the loss last week and with Collingwood’s mounting injury list, there is a chance for an upset.

The Pies will also lose Pat Lipinski with a calf strain alongside Howe and Perryman whilst Jordan De Goey faces a fitness test to be available as he battles glute soreness. Meanwhile the Eagles’ co-captain Liam Baker is a chance to return following a stint on the sidelines with calf tightness.

We’re going to find out what this Eagles side is really made of. Good sides will respond after a disappointing performance. Can West Coast challenge an undermanned Collingwood at home?

Let’s hope it’s a close game but the Pies are too polished an outfit to drop this one going into finals.

Prediction: Collingwood by 15 points.

Harry Cumming

ST KILDA V CARLTON

Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

Cancel your Sunday night plans, this is the Wildcard match before the Wildcard Round.

The ramifications for this game are massive with Carlton sitting 10th and a game above St Kilda and GWS. A win for the Blues would propel them 8 points clear of St Kilda and at least maintain, if not extend their gap to the Giants. However, because their percentage of 97.0 is below the Saints (104.3) and the Giants (99.0), a loss would put Carlton right back amongst the pack.

If St Kilda win, they will likely end the round in 10th with the best percentage and it sets up an intriguing final two rounds of the season for the final Wildcard spot. The Saints are still searching for their big scalp of the 2026 season after leading for the majority of the game against Sydney last week, but were unable to finish the job. It encapsulates a frustrating season for St Kilda who have been the league’s ‘almost’ team.

Carlton did manage a huge scalp with their barnstorming win against Brisbane. Since when did a Blues side kick a score of 154 points? Unheard of. Josh Fraser has got Carlton motoring and proved that his side has genuine backbone following some tough losses to Collingwood and Hawthorn.

Jacob Weitering looms as a massive inclusion for Carlton should he pass a fitness test. For St Kilda, Jack Silvagni is a chance to play against his old side despite dislocating his shoulder against the Swans.

It’s an old-fashioned ‘eight point game’! So, who wants it more?

The Saints were impressive against Sydney but couldn’t get the win whilst Carlton did deliver. It could be what sets them apart this weekend as the Blues have proven they’re a different team under Josh Fraser.

Prediction: Carlton by 8 points.

Harry Cumming