Noonan: "Vulnerable" Sir Delius is no Cox Plate guarantee

Is Sir Delius still a Cox Plate lock?

Since defeating champion mare Autumn Glow in the autumn, when winning the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes across 2000m, many racing fans and pundits have essentially been claiming Sir Delius as the horse to beat in the prestigious Cox Plate (2040m).

But in his first-up run on Saturday, the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained stallion ran fourth despite jumping as the second favourite in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m).

While that run wasn’t shocking or poor by any means, expert form analyst Trav Noonan exclaimed it was only a pass mark and doesn’t believe the six-year-old deserves to be as short as $3 with some bookmakers.

“I don't think he's the shoo-in in the Cox Plate like everyone's talking about,” stated Noonan on RSN’s Correct Weight.

“He's the $3 favourite for the Cox Plate; does he deserve to be that short?

“From an expectation point of view is he that much better than the Birdmans, the Buckaroos, the Aelianas?

“I just think a lot of people are taking that narrative that's quite forgiving (for his first-up run). He was just a pass mark there.”

But what is it in particular that makes Sir Delius not a Cox Plate guarantee?

Noonan explained that the bay appears to be quite vulnerable when he competes in a race with a slow tempo, referencing that Autumn Boy and Half Yours would be better suited than him across 2000m in a slowly run race.

“The question mark I have for him at the moment is his one wood is very fast run races,” Noonan said.

“In very fast run races, he beats horses for stamina, and he beats them for endurance over 2000m. He's just stronger than everything.

“But if you get a few of these races at weight-for-age, if they run on the slower side, I think he's a bit vulnerable.

“In the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and maybe even the Cox Plate, if they're not run with this extreme pace, that's where you're a chance to beat him.

“A horse like Autumn Boy's got a better turn of foot. A horse like Half Yours, I think even at 2000m, that'd be his chance because he's got a big turn of foot.”

When looking at the current market with Sportsbet for the prestigious Cox Plate on October 24, Sir Delius has drifted to $3.50, while Autumn Boy has significantly shortened into the equal second favourite, alongside Aeliana at $6 each.

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