Champion Data: The Hawk that could surprise on Brownlow night

Champion Data has revealed a smokey for the Brownlow that could surprise come the AFL’s night of nights.

The Brownlow Medal, set to be awarded next Monday night, is all but wrapped up, with Collingwood’s Nick Daicos expected not just to win, but to break polling records after a stellar season.

However, it’s the race for second place that has held a majority of debate heading into the ceremony.

AFL.com.au’s Brownlow Predictor holds Bailey Smith in second place with 34 votes, edging out Marcus Bontempelli with 32 votes, and Will Ashcroft with 27 votes.

As it stands, Sportsbet’s ‘Most Votes without Nick Daicos’ market also sees Smith leading the charge at $1.72, with Bontempelli ($2.50) and Patrick Cripps ($21) rounding out the top three.

However, Champion Data analyst Corey Mobilio believes that a Hawthorn star has a good chance of polling above the odds.

“If there was a market without Nick Daicos… it’s hard to ignore Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli,” Mobilio told SEN Breakfast.

“A little smokey who does a lot right, and his number really correlate with recent winners in terms of what has stacked up really well, is Jai Newcombe.

“I think he might be one that could sneaky poll well. No one could beat Daicos – it would be the biggest shock of the century if Daicos was robbed.

“As a little bit of a smokey, Newcombe does what a lot of recent winners have done well in terms of contest and clearance.”

AFL.com.au currently holds Newcombe in ninth place, 10 votes short of Bailey Smith’s projected tally.

20th in last year’s count with 17 votes, the 25-year-old saw a huge jump in overall performance this season, averaging career highs in disposals (26) and clearances (eight).

Interestingly, since 2008, every winner of the Brownlow Medal has finished within the top six for total contested possessions.

And despite Nick Daicos expected to buck the trend, Newcombe finished in sixth for contested ball with 299 on the season, behind Patrick Cripps, Clayton Oliver, Lachie Neale, Max Gawn and Harley Reid.

The ceremony kicks off at 8:00pm AEST on Monday, September 21, with the red carpet kicking off at 7:30pm.