Gossage: Lions the team Freo wanted in Grand Final

Brisbane is the very team that Fremantle would have wanted to play in this year’s Grand Final.

That is according to SEN WA's Tim Gossage who reckons the Dockers will fully embrace the possibility of a high-scoring contest at the MCG.

Justin Longmuir’s Freo side has played in some high-pressure finals so far, losing to Hawthorn, before beating Geelong and then storming over Sydney last weekend.

With the Lions becoming a more efficient ‘shootout’ team of late, it will give the Dockers a better chance of playing a game style they prefer with somewhat less pressure around the contest.

“Geelong got in their grill at one stage and then Fremantle worked their way through it,” Gossage said on SEN Breakfast.

“Hawthorn were in the face from the get-go and they couldn’t deal with it. Sydney were in their face for three quarters then ran out of tickets.

“Brisbane play a very different brand. I think Fremantle will embrace a high-scoring, free-flowing game.

“I reckon they love this match-up. Genuinely, I think, Brisbane is the team they wanted to play.”

Gossage was asked a few predictions ahead of the game:

Will Lachie Neale play? “No.”

Who should Josh Dunkley tag? “I don’t reckon he could keep up with Shai Bolton, so I reckon he would go to Caleb Serong.”

Will Freo players be classed as immortals if they win? “Yeah, I do. I think the 1992 West Coast premiership team are immortal and remain so in our town.

“For 30-odd years they haven’t been able to get there so it will be huge.”

Who are you tipping? “I think Fremantle win, I genuinely do. Everything’s in their favour.

“For what it’s worth, they played a day earlier, they’ve got no real problems.”

Who wins the Norm Smith? “I’ll go Alex Pearce.”

Run data advantages Freo

From a fitness sense, the Dockers also have the advantage.

That is according to high performance guru Andrew Russell who is backing the running data - the amount of sprint efforts versus the opposition, and the amount of distance covered versus the opposition.

The Lions are usually adept in this area given their controlling game style, but in last weekend’s extraordinary Preliminary Final win over Hawthorn they were forced to run more than normal.

And that can be tough to bounce back from.

“Brisbane have only won the run data versus their opposition three times in the last two years,” Russell said.

“In a game of footy there’s inside work rate which is the pressure number. There’s outside work rate which is run. Both are important.

“In finals it’s the inside work rate and pressure numbers that are so important. More important than the run data.

“But interestingly, only three times in the last two years Brisbane have won the run data against their opposition. Because they play that mark-kick-mark game, they control the game and they take the power out of the opposition. But they run less because they’re so efficient.”

The Lions’ prelim win over the Hawks was taxing which might impact their recovery in the lead-up to Saturday’s decider.

“It certainly was for Brisbane because they rarely win this data, so for them to win that means they’ve had to really work hard to win that game, Russell added.

“So both pressure and run for them was very high. They’ve gone to the wire.

“Fremantle haven’t gone to the wire. Their run data during the finals series has been really low.

“I’ve followed this over years and years and years - whenever you have low run data versus your oppo you generally come out the next week fresh and full of run.

“Freo’s three finals game have been high pressure and low run. Since the Hawthorn game they’ve really ramped up their pressure but their run hasn’t been high.”

Russell was at Hawthorn when they won two preliminary finals by under a goal (2013, 2015) in high-fatigue games that were full of pressure but not high on run - run being the main element that fatigues players.

The Hawks came out after those lower run data prelims and won the ensuing Grand Finals.

“I think it does (make a big difference),” he continued.

“Brisbane’s run data was high and so was their pressure, versus Freo who had a high-pressure game but their run wasn’t that high.”

As a result he’s tipping the Dockers.

“I’m going with Fremantle. I’m sticking to what I know and going with the numbers.

“I’m going with the fresh running team versus the team that played a high work rate and highly emotional game last week.”