What the Blues need to match a bid on Cody Walker

The AFL’s new bid matching system in the National Draft is certainly hard to follow.

And with both Carlton and Port Adelaide awaiting bids from their rivals ahead of this year’s draft, former AFL player manager Marty Pask has explored what both clubs need to acquire their club-tied talents.

With the draft set for Thursday, November 19th, both the Power and the Blues are attacking this year’s trade period with a necessity for draft picks, aimed at matching the game’s strict bid-matching laws amended ahead of this year’s pool.

Pask dived into the history of bid matching, identifying why it was previously so easy for clubs to match bids on their high-value talents in comparison to what the game demands today.

“What I want to do first is give you a little bit of a snapshot of what happened last year,” Pask told Trade Radio.

“This was the last time that the previous rules were in place.

“We go back 12 months ago to last year’s player movement period, and we use the Gold Coast Suns as an example.

“They traded Picks 7 and 8 as a part of its player movement dealings to get Christian Petracca in the door, yet they could still secure four academy prospects in the first 18 selections of the 2025 National Draft.

“Those being Zeke Uwland at Pick 2, Dylan Patterson at Pick 5, Jai Murray at Pick 17 and Beau Addinsall with Pick 18.

“They did this using around 13 picks with different machinations to get in and out of the draft. That was the way it was.

“Enter February 2026, we’ve got the new rules. The 2026 rule changes what a club now has to pay to match a father-son, Northern Academy or Next Gen Academy bid.

“For bids in the first two rounds, the club has a maximum of two current draft picks. The price then depends on where it finished that season.

“To give you a quick snapshot, a bid comes in from picks 1-18, the 2026 rule now is that they can use a maximum of two picks to match it, and the ladder-based loading or discount may apply.

“With that, (clubs that finish) first to second, you get a 20 per cent loading. Third to fourth, you get a 10 per cent loading.

“Fifth to 10th, you get no adjustment, and 11th to 18th, you get a 10 per cent discount on the points index contributed to that pick.”

Carlton – Cody Walker

Pask outlined exactly what is required of the Blues to nail down a bid on talented father-son prospect Cody Walker.

“Cody Walker and Dougie Cochrane are the two best players in this draft. From all reports out there, we are thinking Pick 1 and Pick 2.

“Pick 1 we know, is 3000 points. If Cody Walker was bid at number one, Carlton currently have picks 11 and 16. Those picks total 2129 points. So, they will have to go into deficit.

“There has been another rule change with deficit. The deficit for next year, you can have up to 412 points in deficit, but you must have a first-round draft pick for the 2027 draft.

“You’ve got 412 points. So just to back up, Carlton can match with Picks 11 and 16, that gets them 2129 points, they can then use their 412-point deficit… they are 459 short.

“Finishing 10th means they get no discount, and they cannot throw in a third pick, a fourth pick, anything else like the example of the Gold Coast.

“As it stands right now, you would expect them to make sure they improve their hand going into draft night. They might wait right up until draft night just to see where the bid comes and what happens, and they might have some contingency plans.

“You can trade picks on draft night, so you can see where the bid comes and then have a few little opportunities and options to go. As it stands now, if he was to be Pick 1, they are short on points and they need to improve their draft position.

“Pick 2… and they are good.”

Port Adelaide – Dougie Cochrane

Pask also explored Port Adelaide’s requirements for a bid on potential first overall pick Dougie Cochrane, as well as father-son prospect Louis Salopek in 2027.

“This is a little bit different, purely for the sense that because of Port Adelaide’s ladder position, they actually get the 10 per cent discount.

“Their 3000 all of a sudden becomes 2700, so they need to find 2700 points.

“Currently, the two picks they can use at Picks 4 and 20 gives them a combined value of 2719, they can match the Pick 1.

“But, if Zak Butters goes as a restricted free agent and they get Pick 5 as compensation, all of a sudden, Pick 20 isn’t their second pick anymore. Pick 5 is.

“They will use Picks 4 and 5 to get Dougie Cochrane. Therefore, they have a surplus of points.

“They hand over their four and five, they are left with about 1000-odd points over… they will get a pick back!

“Then all of a sudden now, a pick is thrown in. You now have around Pick 14. All of a sudden, you’ve got Douchie Cochrane at Pick 1, then you’ve got Pick 14 and Pick 20.

“You can then watch Port Adelaide – and Jason Cripps is a genius – he will go on draft night, Pick 14 and 20, and come crashing in the draft to try to get higher.”

Port Adelaide - Louis Salopek (2027)

“Think of it this way – next year, you’ve got the seven Tasmania players that have been announced. If they are seven of the next best 15 players for next year’s draft, all of a sudden, if you’ve got Salopek that you are rating seventh or eighth, take out those seven… he might be three or four.

“So his points are more expensive next year. You’re looking at a draft next year where – I would say – a lot of recruiters would want to be trading out of next year’s draft, because the talent pool is diluted.

“Port Adelaide is going to be trying to trade in! It’s going to be a completely different opportunity for Port Adelaide next year.

“They’ve obviously got a different complexity for next year as well.”

Listen to Marty Pask's full explanation with Damian Barrett and Brad Johnson on The Late Trade below: