Can a 3YO win the Cox Plate?

2013 - That was the last year a three-year-old won the Cox Plate, thanks to the Danny O’Brien-trained Shamus Award who broke his maiden to lob at $31 odds.

Now, 13 years on, will 2026 be the year we see a three-year-old win that prestigious Group 1 again?

(Both State Of Rest and Adelaide were northern hemisphere three-year-olds when they won the race - but technically four under Australian WFA conditions).

With only 20 three-year-old winners in the history of the 104-year-old race, the odds are historically against the youngsters, but Warwoven and Blind Raise appear as mighty chances in this year’s edition.

On Saturday, both of those emerging gallopers dominated the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas, finishing first and second.

Warwoven has now been bolstered into the $4.50 second favourite and Blind Raise sits at $10 – they both started as $101 pops when the market for the great race originally opened.

But here is where the debate heats up.

Several form analysts across SENTrack & RSN have differing opinions on whether a three-year-old can win the Cox Plate.

Respected analyst Trav Noonan exclaimed that Warwoven is the dominant colt in Australia and should actually be the favourite for the 2040m Group 1.

“I reckon Warwoven should be favourite for the Cox Plate,” Noonan said on RSN’s Correct Weight.

“There was a question mark on if he could run a strong mile. Well, he's ticked that box.

“In terms of 2000m, on the way he finished off at the mile, you wouldn't put that past him, would you?

“It's scary what he could be able to achieve. He's obviously the dominant colt in the country.”

Cam Luke also shared Noonan’s synopsis, being adamant that either the Bjorn Baker-trained colt or Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young-trained gelding can win.

“Both of those horses can go to the Cox Plate and win it. It's the most open Cox plate I can recall,” Luke said on SENTrack’s Saturday Trackside.

However, Miles Pfitzner went a different direction, explaining on SENTrack’s Lay Back that the running of the race at Flemington Racecourse will be detrimental to the three-year-olds.

Something which Tom Haylock also agreed with.

Haylock: “Will a three-year-old win the Cox Plate?”

Pfitzner: “Lay.”

“I mean the Cox Plate's not run at Caulfield or The Valley.”

Haylock: “So what does that mean?”

Pfitzner: “I just think at Flemington, big open straight, longer to wind up, easier to time runs on a flat track.”

Haylock: “So you think it's easier to win a Cox Plate as a three-year-old at Moonee Valley?”

Pfitzner: “Yeah, because you can tear away in front with a lightweight and not get caught, or if they go too hard, you can rally home late.

Haylock: “Moonee Valley suits the lightweight three-year-old up on speed, 100%, I agree with that.

Pfitzner: “I think at Flemington it gets more back onto an even base. So therefore, I don't think there's a huge advantage to one of the three-year-olds at the lightweight.”

The Cox Plate will be run on October 24 at Flemington, and the current favourite is Sir Delius at $4 odds.

All odds by Sportsbet.

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