Group 1 Gurus: Who to back in the Derby, Golden Eagle & why?

We’ve finally made it! After a year of waiting, the Melbourne Cup Carnival is here.

On Saturday, at Flemington, the Cup Carnival kicks off with the running of three Group 1s, highlighted by the time-honoured Victoria Derby, which was first run in 1855.

Run across 2500m, exclusively for three-year-olds, the Group 1 is worth $3 million, and was won by Godolphin’s Observer last year (2025), followed by Goldrush Guru (2024), Riff Rocket (2023), Manzoice (2022), and Hitotsu (2021).

And in Sydney we have the running of the $10 million Golden Eagle. Run at Randwick across 1500m, the four-year-old race was won by Autumn Glow last year (2025), followed by Lake Forest (2024), Obamburumai (2023), I Wish I Win (2022), and I’m Thunderstruck (2021).

The Victoria Derby is wide-open this year, with Cormier currently holding the top spot in the market, while star mare Sheza Alibi is the red-hot favourite for the Golden Eagle.

Check out our tips and predictions for the Derby & Golden Eagle below!

Victoria Derby

Winner: MURSHIDI

Top 4: Murshidi | Icy You | True Rebel | Stormy Marco

Why: Good luck finding the winner here!

Unlike last year where we could all be fairly confident with Observer, this spring’s edition of the Derby is wide open.

I’m going to tip Murshidi, purely because he is a last-start winner across 2200m and ran through the line supremely well in that race. That is also the reason why I’m predicting Icy You will finish inside the top four in the Derby, considering he ran a close second to Murshidi in that race.

And following the form out of the Vase, I did like Hierarchy the most heading towards the Derby, however, he has since been scratched. True Rebel was the horse that won the Vase, so he must be respected here as well.

Stormy Marco has the Sydney form on his side. Will go well.

Murshidi on top for me, but not confident at all.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: QUICK FINISH

Top 4: Quick Finish | Skua | True Rebel | King Snitz

Why: I'm taking on the Sydney form here out of the Spring Champion Stakes so leave me out of Cormier and Stormy Marco.

I'm delighted with the price that is available for Quick Finish principally because she is a filly and there hasn't been a filly starting in this race for 36 years. History isn't always the rule and I think she will show these lads how it's done with the 2kg weight advantage on the field.

Skua seems an ideal 2500m loper and I can see him slogging it out in the dying stages trying to fend off the fast finishing Quick Finish. True Rebel beat him home last start and can very easily do the same at another very backable price.

My final spot was a toss-up between King Snitz and Murshidi and there really isn't a whole lot in it. I've given King Snitz the nod because I was on him last start and he served me well!

Despite all that, this will not be one of my more confident races of the day and if you find the winner, full credit to you.

Ethan Clark

Winner: TRUE REBEL

Top 4: True Rebel | Stormy Marco | Skua | Cormier

Why: Tricky Derby this. Many chances.

True Rebel was too strong over 2040m in the Vase at Flemington last Saturday and now backs up seven days later.

Drawn wide but looks like he’ll get the trip. Just needs some luck.

Stormy Marco must be respected down from Sydney. Lethal combo of J-Mac and Waller. Can win.

Skua’s form behind True Rebel folds in, and another Sydneysider in Cormier is firmly in the mix.

Hopes don’t end there…

Andrew Slevison

Golden Eagle

Winner: SHEZA ALIBI

Top 4: Sheza Alibi | Beiwacht | Autumn Boy | Skyhook

Why: I think the market has this one absolutely spot on.

Sheza Alibi is easily the best horse in the field and the 1500m distance is right up her alley. The only query for her is the fact that she’s dropping from 2000m down to 1500m. Aside from that, she should be perfect for this race. After all, the stable has been targeting the Golden Eagle as their spring Grand Final since the autumn.

Beiwacht is underrated going into this race, and is the only horse which can beat Sheza Alibi, in my opinion. An extraordinaire at 1400m, he should relish the extra 100m. Forgive his last two starts - 1200m and 1300m don’t suit his running pattern.

Autumn Boy can never seem to get the better of Sheza Alibi and that won’t change here. Class horse but prefer Sheza Alibi and Beiwacht here. He could very well come second though if the 1500m trip doesn't suit Beiwacht.

Skyhook can be competitive here, but I doubt he wins. The horse is in some seriously good form, and the 1500m distance will suit, but I can’t see him beating any of the other three at the track/distance.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: SHEZA ALIBI

Top 4: Sheza Alibi | Within The Law | Apocalyptic | Regal Award

Why: If Sheza Alibi wasn't here, this would be one of the more even editions of a Golden Eagle.

Alas, she is here and she will have to do something terribly wrong not to win this one.

Within The Law is my favoured chance if the boilover was to occur after finishing off the Silver Eagle in eye-catching style on the inside of Skyhook, Decorum, Beiwacht and Apocalyptic.

Apocalyptic returned to form in that race and will try to go with Sheza when they hit the accelerator, while I have faith in Regal Award to bounce back after a disappointing Toorak Handicap at a huge price for the quality of horse he is.

One last thing, and this is very pedantic of me, but can we please stop calling her 'Shezan' Alibi...

Ethan Clark

Winner: SHEZA ALIBI

Top 4: Sheza Alibi | Skyhook | Beiwacht | Autumn Boy

Why: Sheza looks the class here.

The only query is how she has come through that tough Might And Power run where she was turned over by Land Legend. If she's fine she wins.

Skyhook is racing in a rich vein of form. Narrowly beaten by Apocalyptic over 1300m last time which came after his three-length romp at Group 2 level over 1500m.

Beiwacht can lead and dictate. Should be in it for a long way. Autumn Boy can also figure.

Andrew Slevison

We also analysed the other two Group 1s at Flemington – the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) and Empire Rose (1600m).

Check out our tips and predictions for those two Group 1s below!

Coolmore Stud Stakes

Winner: THE NEXT EPISODE

Top 4: The Next Episode | Natural Fling | St Gotthard | Paradoxium

Why: I need to have The Next Episode on top here. A last-start winner on the Flemington straight at 1100m on a heavy track. He should relish this Group 1 here, especially from an outside barrier of 14.

Natural Fling also ran a close second behind The Next Episode in that race. Respect.

St Gotthard will be sprinting home hard. A classy colt, but queries on the Flemington straight.

Paradoxium is always around the mark. I think the straight track will suit his leading style as well. One for exotics.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: NATURAL FLING

Top 4: Natural Fling | The Next Episode | Alibaba | Satono Glow

Why: It felt harsh narrowing this down to nine after my initial sweep of the field, let alone my final four.

Natural Fling and The Next Episode going head-to-head is must-watch and I will side with the Tony & Calvin McEvoy trained filly Natural Fling down 1.5kgs. I don't think the 1200m will phase her and Damian Lane is personally my most trusted steer in the ranks at the moment.

Go watch the Danehill Stakes and explain to me why Alibaba is $61. I had to check my eyes weren't deceiving me, so I checked some data from that race and it pushed me further into him with a top speed of 68.54km/h compared to The Next Episode's 67.21km/h. If 'Froggy' gets his timing right, this is an each-way play all day.

Satono Glow is my preferred Sydney formline over St Gotthard and I love a horse with a turn of foot like her.

Don't let me talk you out of Paradoxium, Steel Will and Mbube for some exotic plays at juiced up prices either.

Ethan Clark

Winner: THE NEXT EPISODE

Top 4: The Next Episode | Satono Glow | St Gotthard | Steel Will

Why: Hard not to be taken by the turn of foot The Next Episode possesses.

Is drawn nicely towards the outside fence which might be the right place to be down the straight.

Satono Glow is flying with two strong wins - one here at Flemington and last time out at Rosehill. Huge danger to the favourite.

St Gotthard will be right there at the business end.

Don’t think we’ll get a blowout.

Steel Will probably can’t win, but should run well at huge odds. A top four or five hope.

Andrew Slevison

Empire Rose

Winner: LADY SHENANDOAH

Top 4: Lady Shenandoah | Unleeshing | Surfin’ Bird | Idle Flyer

Why: Hard to pick against Lady Shenandoah here. The obvious class horse in the field. Was the Toorak Handicap winner last start across 1600m and should be able to win again here.

Surfin’ Bird and Unleeshing were winners in their last starts, which were both run across 1600m. Were both amazing through the line as well, especially Unleeshing. Consider.

Idle Flyer only ran 1.9 lengths behind Autumn Glow a month ago as well. One for exotics.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: SASS APPEAL

Top 4: Sass Appeal | Salty Pearl | Idle Flyer | Lady Shenandoah

Why: Shock, horror, I don't trust Lady Shenandoah! I know last start was gutsy but being asked to take close to even money at opening was ridiculous for a horse that's never seen Flemington and notoriously gets herself beaten repeatedly.

Sass Appeal, on the other hand, adores Flemington (5:4-0-0) and, once again, has 'Frosty' Lane aboard who I am clearly tipping for a monster of a day. Perfect draw off a nice month off to freshen up and down 1.5kgs, sign me up.

I am completely ignoring the last start of Salty Pearl who went forward with Craig Williams aboard and was found wanting. Regular rider Ben Allen reclaims his ride on a horse he's placed nine times from 12 starts.

Idle Flyer has a huge win in her and I am just worried I won't be with her when she puts her best work together. I'm hoping she can find some of her best here.

Ethan Clark

Winner: LADY SHENANDOAH

Top 4: Lady Shenandoah | Surfin’ Bird | Unleeshing | Concord Connie

Why: Barging win by Lady Shenandoah in the Toorak over the mile last start.

She’s back to mares grade here and looks the standout runner in this weaker edition of the Empire Rose.

Surfin’ Bird the obvious danger. Will race close to the speed and is unbeaten in four tries at the mile.

Back-to-back wins in Sydney for Unleeshing who will be motoring late. Concord Connie has the ability to run well.

Throw Pillow Fight in to juice up any exotics.

Andrew Slevison

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