Group 1 Gurus: Who to back in the Melbourne Cup & why?

Here we are! The biggest day on the Australian racing calendar – Melbourne Cup Day!

It’s the race that stops a nation, and we have done the work to try and find you a winner in the great race.

Run on the first Tuesday of November at Flemington Racecourse, the prestigious handicap was first run in 1861 and has since become one of the world’s feature races.

Competing across 3200m, the Group 1 is worth $10 million, and was won by Half Yours last year (2025), followed by Knight’s Choice (2024), Without A Fight (2023), Gold Trip (2022), and Verry Elleegant (2021).

As usual, this year’s edition of the Melbourne Cup is wide-open. Geelong Cup winner Point Of Law is currently favourite for the handicap, but any horse can claim triumph!

Check out our tips and predictions for the Melbourne Cup below!

Melbourne Cup

Winner: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT

Top 4: Trustyourinstinct | Juja Kibo | Goodie Two Shoes | Point Of Law

Why: It’s the hardest race of the year to find a winner, but that’s what we love it for!

I like the international form heading into this race and will be tracking some Joseph O’Brien-trained gallopers.

I’ve got Trustyourinstinct on top. O’Brien has trained two Cup winners before, and he could very well make it three here. The gelding has won at the distance previously, and in his last start, hit the line well across 2816m in Ireland, losing to Scandinavia – the former Melbourne Cup favourite. Also, Australia’s best jockey, James McDonald, is in the mount, big tick! Additionally, race caller Matt Hill gave this horse a big push on RSN’s Correct Weight. The 57kg and barrier 18 is the query for him though.

Juja Kibo looks a good thing. Has everything going for it here based off the past decade of Melbourne Cup statistics. It’s last two races were victories across 2400m and 2500m. Could very well win.

The King’s former horse, Point Of Law, will also be around the mark. Is the current favourite, and rightfully so. Now trained by Ciaron Maher, the stallion impressively won the Geelong Cup (2400m), proving that he should run a mighty race in the Melbourne Cup. Weighted perfectly as well. Big chance.

Goodie Two Shoes is at a lovely price. Another O’Brien-trained international and finished second in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Has raced three times at the distance with a record of 1-1-1. Must be respected.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: SHOCKLETZ

Top 4: Shockletz | Hopewell Rock | Middle Earth | Point of Law

Why: Shockletz is rightfully the biggest chance of the Australian trained stayers - carries a very nice weight and has had the perfect lead up, she is my top selection.

Hopewell Rock is my pick of the imports, I think to win the Cup you must stay the distance and have a turn of foot that can ignite your race, sounds obvious but this Gelding has them both.

Ciaron Maher has labelled Middle Earth his best Cup chance for months, and he has a way getting his stars up for grand final day. He ran 3rd in this race last year, the weight is what leans me towards a place rather than a win here. Will run well.

Point of Law is definitely one to include in your exotics, again seems obvious, but I think he is well under the odds, will run well but as the favourite, not for me.

Jasper Cormick

Winner: SHOCKLETZ

Top 4: Shockletz | Trustyourinstinct | Hopewell Rock | Middle Earth

Why: The lightweight from a wide barrier has been an ok recipe in this race in recent history.

The jockey situation on Shockletz will be interesting. Whether Harry Coffey rides with his broken collarbone. Or Micky Dee, who is a decent rider of stayers, gets the nod.

But the daughter of 2009 winner Shocking - who also won with 51kg from barrier 22 - is right place, right time for this assignment. Last two runs have been perfect tune-ups and can win if she gets lucky.

The internationals must be respected. James McDonald on Trustyourinstinct for Joseph O’Brien simply should be in your numbers.

Hopewell Rock has the right form to run very well.

Middle Earth has been prepped for this day from a long way out. Ciaron Maher would have him finely tuned for the 3200m.

Clearly the chances don’t end there…

Andrew Slevison

Winner: SHOCKLETZ

Top 4: Shockletz | Zahrann | Point Of Law | Juja Kibo

Why: This would be the best storyline of the race, hands down. Harry Coffey (if he rides) coming off a a broken collarbone and a procedure as well as the fact her sire, Shocking, won the great race in 2009. Plus who doesn't love a mare getting the job done over the lads like the Verry Elleegant's and Makybe Diva's that have gone before.

I love horses bred in New Zealand over staying trips and she is the only one in the field with that pedigree. Will be barracking hard for her!

Cross Counter in 2018 was the last horse to win the Melbourne Cup at it's first ever start in Australia and it was the second consecutive year that occurred after Rekindling for Joseph O'Brien in 2017. Although that could be used to make a case for the O'Brien runners in the market this year, the weights of 51 and 51.5kgs respectively tell me the recipe has to be perfect for it to work.

Now, with the weights increased from 50-58kgs to 51-59kgs in 2025, I think the task becomes all the more difficult for the mega-hyped raiders, so I've left them out.

That leaves me with the Aussie bunch and the internationals that have had a stretch in our surrounds.

Zahrann is the sleeper horse in this field and the one the market has missed. I know he hasn't proven himself over the two miles but, let's be honest, the same can be said for several chances in this.

His run up the inside in the Caulfield Cup was sneakily good last start and prior to that he beat home Saint George with relative ease in the Naturalism. Forgive the Turnbull Stakes run on the heavy deck and that is a nice progression in my eyes for a step-up to this distance. Strong blowout chance.

Point Of Law is the brash youngster with a bit of an ego and bravado stepping out onto the big stage for the first time here.

If he thought Geelong was rowdy, wait until he sees this crowd at Flemington! Alas, his win in that Geelong Cup demanded attention and oozed staying brilliance and I think this won't be the last time he contests the first Tuesday in November after some more maturing. Fingers crossed he keeps drifting in the market.

Juja Kibo hit the line so well in the 2500m Moonee Valley Gold Cup at Flemington and that is enough to sneak into my top four hopes. A firt-time Cup jockey Sam Clipperton would be a story if he salutes and we will see whether 3200m is his go.

Soul Of Spain, Mr Monaco, Zakouma and Hopewell Rock (the best hope of the first-timers in Aus) can be thrown into your multiples.

Ethan Clark

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