Melbourne Cup system: The ultimate guide to finding the winner

Every year it proves fairly difficult trying to pick the Melbourne Cup winner and those that run into the placings.

We’ve devised a points system (not scientific) to help you (maybe) land the winner and perhaps even jag an exotic or two.

From the last 10 Cups we have looked at everything from the jockey, to the barriers, to the silks, the lead-up form, even the names and much more, we’ve considered all the moving parts and given points to all runners where necessary.

The final list has JUJA KIBO on top, narrowly ahead of SONS AND LOVERS, with past winner KNIGHT’S CHOICE making up the top three.

Beyond that, Middle Earth, Mr Monaco, Trustyourinstinct and James J Braddock can be used to juice up any multiples/exotics.

FINAL POINTS TALLY

Juja Kibo (26)
Sons And Lovers (25)
Knight’s Choice (24.5)
Middle Earth (24)
Mr Monaco (23)
Trustyourinstinct (21.5)
James J Braddock (21.5)
Royal Supremacy (21)
Enfjaar (20.5)
So You Are (20)
Soul Of Spain (20)
Hopewell Rock (19.75)
Future History (19)
Point Of Law (18.25)
Asterix (17)
Zakouma (17)
Vauban (16.75)
Wine Dark Sea (16)
Onesmoothoperator (15.25)
Kizlyar (14.5)
Shockletz (14.25)
Strictly Business (14.25)
Zahrann (13.5)
Goodie Two Shoes (13)

See all of the workings below:

JOCKEY

Mark Zahra has won two Cups. He partners MIDDLE EARTH - (2 points).

Robbie Dolan won on KNIGHT’S CHOICE in 2024 - (1 point).

Last year’s winner Jamie Melham rides FUTURE HISTORY - (1 point).

James McDonald has a Cup win to his name. He’s aboard TRUSTYOURINSTINCT - (1 point).

Jye McNeil has won a Cup before. He’ll ride ASTERIX - (1 point).

Craig Williams rode the winner in 2019. He sits atop JAMES J BRADDOCK - (1 point).

TRAINER

Joseph O’Brien has trained two Cup winners. He has five runners: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT, JAMES J BRADDOCK, SONS AND LOVERS, GOODIE TWO SHOES, KIZLYAR - (2 points each).

John Symons & Sheila Laxon trained KNIGHT’S CHOICE to win two years ago - (1 point).

2022 winner Ciaron Maher has seven runners: POINT OF LAW, SHOCKLETZ, JUJA KIBO, MIDDLE EARTH, MR MONACO, ZAHRANN, ROYAL SUPREMACY - (1 point each).

Chris Waller has trained a past winner. He has two runners: SOUL OF SPAIN, ASTERIX - (1 point each).

AGE

Four-year-olds have won three of the past 10 Cups: JAMES J BRADDOCK, POINT OF LAW, STRICTLY BUSINESS - (3 points each).

Five-year-olds have saluted twice: WINE DARK SEA, HOPEWELL ROCK, ZAHRANN, SO YOU ARE, KIZLYAR, SHOCKLETZ - (2 points each).

Six-year-olds have won two: SONS AND LOVERS, ROYAL SUPREMACY, JUJA KIBO, SOUL OF SPAIN, MR MONACO, ZAKOUMA - (2 points each).

Seven-year-olds have two recent victories: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT, KNIGHT’S CHOICE, MIDDLE EARTH, ENFJAAR - (2 points each).

Eight-year-olds have won once of late: ASTERIX, GOODIE TWO SHOES - (1 point each).

The three nine-year-olds: Vauban, Onesmoothoperator, Future History - (0 points).

TYPE

Geldings have won seven of the past 10: SONS AND LOVERS, TRUSTYOURINSTINCT, KNIGHT’S CHOICE, MIDDLE EARTH, VAUBAN, ENFJAAR, ROYAL SUPREMACY, WINE DARK SEA, ASTERIX, JUJA KIBO, HOPEWELL ROCK, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR, SOUL OF SPAIN, SO YOU ARE, FUTURE HISTORY, JAMES J BRADDOCK, KIZLYAR, MR MONACO, ZAKOUMA - (7 points each).

(19 of the 24 runners are geldings, making up 79.2% of the field).

Horses/stallions have won twice in the last decade: ZAHRANN, POINT OF LAW - (2 points each).

Mares have won just once: GOODIE TWO SHOES, STRICTLY BUSINESS, SHOCKLETZ - (1 point each).

WEIGHT

Two winners have carried 52kg: ZAKOUMA - (2 points).

One winner has carried 51kg: SHOCKLETZ - (1 point).

One winner has carried 53kg: POINT OF LAW, STRICTLY BUSINESS - (1 point each).

One winner has carried 56.5kg: KNIGHT’S CHOICE, MIDDLE EARTH, VAUBAN - (1 point each).

One winner has carried 57kg: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT - (1 point each).

One winner has carried 57.5kg: SONS AND LOVERS - (1 point each).

NUMBER

No.23 has won twice in the last 10: ZAKOUMA - (2 points).

No.1 has won once: SONS AND LOVERS - (1 point).

No.3 has won once: KNIGHT’S CHOICE - (1 point).

No.4 has won once: MIDDLE EARTH - (1 point).

No.6 has won once: ENFJAAR - (1 point).

No.11 has won once: JUJA KIBO - (1 point).

No.14 has won once: SOUL OF SPAIN - (1 point).

No.17 has won once: FUTURE HISTORY - (1 point).

No.22 has won once: MR MONACO - (1 point).

BARRIER

Barrier 4 has won once: STRICTLY BUSINESS - (1 point).

Barrier 5 has won once: SOUL OF SPAIN - (1 point).

Barrier 8 has won once: ENFJAAR - (1 point).

Barrier 12 has won once: FUTURE HISTORY - (1 point).

Barrier 13 has won once: ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - (1 point).

Barrier 16 has won once: MR MONACO - (1 point).

Barrier 17 has won once: SHOCKLETZ - (1 point).

Barrier 18 has won once: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT - (1 point).

Barrier 19 has won once: GOODIE TWO SHOES - (1 point).

Barrier 21 has won once: ROYAL SUPREMACY - (1 point).

PRICE

Note: We understand prices will fluctuate. We’ve done our best to account. This is not an exact science.

Two have won at $9: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT ($8.5 at time of writing) - (1 point).

Two have won at $11: JUJA KIBO, HOPEWELL ROCK - (2 points).

One has won at $8: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT ($8.5 at time of writing) - (1 point).

One has won $14: MIDDLE EARTH - (1 point).

One has won at $18: JAMES J BRADDOCK ($19 at time of writing) - (0.5 points).

One has won at $21: SONS AND LOVERS ($20 at time of writing) - (0.5 points).

One has won at $26: GOODIE TWO SHOES, ZAKOUMA - (1 point each). ZAHRANN ($27 at time of writing) - (0.5 points).

LEAD-UP RESULT

On three occasions the winner won their lead-up race: JUJA KIBO, SO YOU ARE, POINT OF LAW - (3 points each).

On two occasions the winner ran 2nd in their lead-up race: SONS AND LOVERS, HOPEWELL ROCK, SHOCKLETZ - (2 points each).

On two occasions the winner ran 3rd in their lead-up race: ENFJAAR, MR MONACO - (2 points each).

On one occasion the winner ran 4th in their lead-up race: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT - (1 point each).

On one occasion the winner ran 9th in their lead-up race: VAUBAN, FUTURE HISTORY - (1 point each).

LEAD-UP DISTANCE

Five winners raced at 2400m the start prior: POINT OF LAW, SO YOU ARE, SONS AND LOVERS, ENFJAAR - (5 points each). ZAHRANN, JAMES J BRADDOCK, SOUL OF SPAIN, WINE DARK SEA, VAUBAN, ASTERIX (finished 4-7 lengths off winner) - (4.5 points). GOODIE TWO SHOES, KNIGHT’S CHOICE, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (finished 9-10 lengths off the winner) - (4 points). ROYAL SUPREMACY (finished 17 lengths off winner) - (2.5 points).

Two winners raced at 2040m the start prior: SHOCKLETZ - (2 points each). MIDDLE EARTH (finished 7 lengths off winner) - (1 point).

One winner raced at 2500m the start prior: JUJA KIBO, MR MONACO - (1 point each). FUTURE HISTORY, KIZLYAR (finished 4 lengths off the winner) - (0.5 points). STRICTLY BUSINESS (finished 14 lengths off winner) - (0.25 points).

One winner raced at 2816m the start prior: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT - (1 point each). HOPEWELL ROCK raced at 2786m - (0.5 points).

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN

Two winners had 10 days since last run: SHOCKLETZ, JUJA KIBO - (2 points each). MIDDLE EARTH, MR MONACO, ZAKOUMA, KIZLYAR, FUTURE HISTORY, STRICTLY BUSINESS (11 days) - (1 point).

Two winners had 17 days: NO RUNNERS

One winner had six days: SO YOU ARE (seven days) - (0.5 points).

One winner had 16: POINT OF LAW, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR, VAUBAN (14 days) - (0.25 points).

One winner had 17: ENFJAAR, ZAHRANN, KNIGHT’S CHOICE, SOUL OF SPAIN, WINE DARK SEA, ASTERIX , ROYAL SUPREMACY (18 days) - (0.5 points)

One winner had 23: NO RUNNERS

One winner had 51: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT - (1 point).

One winner had 52: JAMES J BRADDOCK, SONS AND LOVERS, GOODIE TWO SHOES (53 days) - (0.5 points).

One winner had 76: HOPEWELL ROCK (74 days) - (0.25 points).

SILK COLOURS

Seven of the last 10 winners have had plenty of blue: POINT OF LAW, JUJA KIBO, HOPEWELL ROCK, MIDDLE EARTH, JAMES J BRADDOCK, ZAHRANN, SOUL OF SPAIN, VAUBAN, ROYAL SUPREMACY, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR, STRICTLY BUSINESS - 1 (point each). FUTURE HISTORY (blue sleeves) - (0.5 points).

(Six of those were predominantly blue).

One winner was predominantly red (with a touch of blue): MR MONACO - (1 point).

One winner was predominantly yellow: NO RUNNERS - TRUSTYOURINSTINCT, GOODIE TWO SHOES, SO YOU ARE (for having some yellow) - (0.5 points).

One winner was pink with lime green: KNIGHT’S CHOICE - (1 point).

One winner was predominantly orange: NO RUNNERS - SHOCKLETZ (for having some orange) - (0.25 points).

WORDS IN NAME

Six winners have had two words in the name: JUJA KIBO, HOPEWELL ROCK, MIDDLE EARTH, MR MONACO, KNIGHT’S CHOICE, FUTURE HISTORY, ROYAL SUPREMACY, STRICTLY BUSINESS - (6 points).

Two winners have had three words in the name: POINT OF LAW, SO YOU ARE, JAMES J BRADDOCK, SONS AND LOVERS, GOODIE TWO SHOES, SOUL OF SPAIN, WINE DARK SEA - (2 points).

Two winners have had one word in the name: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT, SHOCKLETZ, ENFJAAR, ZAKOUMA, ZAHRANN, KIZLYAR, VAUBAN, ASTERIX, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - (2 points).

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