And then there were four… VAFA Men's Semi-Final Previews

The 2026 VAFA William Buck Premier Men’s home & away season was another thrill ride full of twists and turns.

However, the Top 4 teams firmly established themselves as genuine premiership contenders relatively early, and we now look ahead to a fascinating finals series as they slug it out for the silverware.

We begin with the two Semi-Finals this weekend.

Let’s take a closer look:

1st SEMI FINAL: ST KEVIN’S vs OLD BRIGHTON (Saturday 2.30pm – Trevor Barker Beach Oval)

LIVE coverage - Kommunity TV, VAFA.com.au & SEN app.

It’s a sudden-death Semi at Beach Oval, with the loser left to rue a wasted premiership opportunity in a September that feels relatively wide open.

SKOB started 2026 with a couple of significant areas to bed down, after a raft of new forwards arrived over the summer to provide greater strike power up front and ultimately kick winning scores in these big games come September.

They also welcomed club legend and premiership skipper Luke Mahoney back to the fold, with the successful Big V & premiership coach taking charge of Offence & Gameday Trends.

‘Marns’ was tasked with upgrading SKOB’s ball movement to generate more supply to feed a new collection of talented recruits. Always defensively minded, this was to be a more attacking and expansive St Kevin’s in 2026.

So understandably, SKOB were a step or two behind Xavs and Old Brighton early on, and they dropped their first two matches before their new line-up and method began to gel.

They promptly won 9 of their next 10 starts, re-establishing themselves as a contender for an eighth straight season.

The only team to defeat them from early May to late July? Yep. The Tonners.

The reigning premiers won 5 of their first 6, then struggled with player unavailability mid-season, dropping 4 of 6 from Rounds 7 to 12, before returning troops saw them finish with 5 wins from their last 6 appearances to hit September with renewed confidence.

Now they clash to decide who will advance to Preliminary Final Day.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

The two teams are evenly matched at both ends, with SKOB averaging just 5 points per game more at the scoring end, while the Tonners are 2 points better defensively:
St Kevin’s ATTACK #2 (94ppg) vs #3 (74ppg) Old Brighton DEFENCE
St Kevin’s DEFENCE #4 (76ppg) vs #4 (89ppg) Old Brighton ATTACK

So, it’s fair to expect that the game may be won and lost between the arcs:-

THE MIDFIELD BATTLE:
The numbers suggest that SKOB will win more contested footy, while the Tonners have more uncontested ball.

The clearance battle will obviously be critical, with both teams blessed with stoppage experts capable of repeatedly getting the footy going their way, so the ruck contest looms as massive. Which combo can give their mids more first use?

SKOB ruck Billy Coates will be an imposing figure as always. He is the #1 Contested Possession and Clearance player in the competition in 2026 (by a whopping 27 takeaways), and only Sam Conway (Uni Blacks) has won more Hit-outs to Advantage.

Billy is either putting it down the throat of his midfield mates or muscling it out of the middle himself.

Old Brighton has to find a way to lessen his impact, and that task will fall to the combination of Josh Carr and Felix Flockart, who will need to use their energy, athleticism and leap to try to get the battle on their terms by working Coates over around the ground.

Jump over him. Run off him. Make him defend by getting yourself into dangerous positions.

None of this is new to Billy, who faces these challenges every week.

But the bottom line is that both teams will want their midfield gaining control however possible, for two vital reasons – to feed their own forward line, and to prevent the opposition’s attackers from getting good looks.

The St Kevin’s midfield is all about balance and collective effort. Coates is the star, but beyond Billy, no other player is ranked in the Top 10 for Contested Possessions or Clearances (Ben Mansfield is #13 and #12).

The Old Brighton midfield is led by skipper Harry Hill, who is #6 in Contested Possessions and #5 in Clearances, despite missing two games to the European summer. Hill has 122 clearances, 37 more than any other Tonner, ahead of Josh Carr (85), Luca Macnab (83), Tom Burnell (68).

THE INTERCEPT GAME:
Old Brighton’s ability to pressure opponents into error has been a cornerstone of their success in recent years.

If the Tonners can break even on the inside or even just prevent clean SKOB takeaways, they will back their superior Intercept game to deliver the additional possession they need to kick a winning score.

They are the #1 team for Intercept Possessions, while no one has fewer than SKOB. Old Brighton is #3 for Intercept Marks, while only wooden-spooners St Bernard’s have taken fewer than SKOB.

So, even if St Kevin’s win the footy out of congestion, they'll need to be precise with their ball use, or risk it returning over their heads with interest.

STRIKEPOWER
Anthony Lynch lost his 3 leading goalkickers from last season: Sam Critchley (32), Sam Barnett (29), and Patty Kerr (25). He has successfully replaced them with Jacob Koschitzke (30), Sam Tucker (28), Doug Kerr (26) and Jack Behnk (24).

Given that array of marking power, it’s little surprise that only Old Xavs have taken more Marks Inside 50 than SKOB this season. No team is better at hitting up their forward targets than St Kevin’s, who retain possession entering their Forward 50 52% of the time (#1 in the comp). Old Brighton (51%) is second.

But their quartet has rarely (if ever) all played together at once this season, due to injuries, overseas travel and VFL commitments. If they can all click at once, it could be a thing of beauty for St Kevin’s fans this September.

The Tonners have one mercurial, game-changing forward who can rip a contest apart – Archi Manton, with 24 goals from just 6 appearances this season. Ben Pryor also has 24 (from 17 games), while Luke Travers has 23 from 15 matches.

Throw in Ryan Agg (19 goals), Hamish Dick (18), Charlie Richardson (17), and Felix Flockart (13), and you can see that – Manton aside - Old Brighton are more likely to outkick you by committee. A few goals to one guy, a couple to a few guys, a handful of other contributors, and it all adds up to a winning score.

If Harry Hill, Luca Macnab, Tom Burnell and Jordy Segar can repeatedly feed their teammates Inside 50, the Tonners become very difficult to stop.

When on song, their game is so well connected - pressure on the inside, set up well behind the ball to force turnovers, then punish with precision themselves.

RECENT MEETINGS:
These two teams have played plenty of nailbiters in recent years, with 7 games decided by 7 points or less since 2022.

Old Brighton won 5 of those 7 thrillers, as well as both home & away meetings this season – by 24 points in Round 2, then 20 points in Round 9 at TH King.

In fact, the Tonners have won 5 of their last 6 over St Kevin’s, including a 6-point Second Semi thriller in 2024.

This year they’ll meet to decide who makes it to the Preliminary Final, and who is done and dusted for 2026.

Watch this blockbuster LIVE & EXCLUSIVELY on Kommunity TV, with radio coverage on VAFA.com.au & the SEN app from 2.15pm Saturday!

(If you’re going to the game, TAKE YOUR HEADPHONES/EARBUDS & enjoy our award-winning call of the action with NO DELAY via SEN Stadium on the app.)

VAFA MEDIA TIPS: Matthew Donald – Old Brighton by 23pts
Hugo Higginbotham - Old Brighton by 18pts

2nd SEMI FINAL – UNIVERSITY BLUES vs OLD XAVERIANS (Saturday 2.30pm – Revo Fitness Park)

LIVE coverage - Kommunity TV, VAFA.com.au & SEN app.

These two teams have been the pacesetters for most of the season and finished 3 games clear of the field, both with an impressive 15-3 record, and just 5.7% separating them.

The Blues claimed the minor premiership for the first time since 2019, finally putting all the pieces together for an entire home-and-away campaign after flashes of brilliance in 2024 and 2025 were ruined by injuries and inconsistency that ultimately saw them finish mid-table.

Some credit for that consistency must surely go to their raft of ex-AFL veterans – Marty Gleeson, James Stewart, Sam Grimley, Brad Ebert, Taylor Duryea and Cam O’Shea. Their influence spans the field, and it is a luxury to have so many calm, experienced heads to turn to.

But Old Xaverians also boast a talented line-up of big-time players who have helped Xavs go 15-3 for a second straight season.

The likes of Campbell Lane, Charlie Macisaac, Will Goss, Jack O’Sullivan, Sam Hansen, Alec Spralja, Wade Brusnahan, Tommy McRae, Charlie Knott, Julian Gangi and Ed Delany have been joined by X-factor recruits Ollie Sestan and Alwyn Davey.

Throw in ball magnet Woodrow Medallists Sam Fisher and Marcus Stavrou, both of whom missed the first half of the campaign due to injury, and Xavs have all the tools to challenge for the 2026 flag.

Their three losses this year included one of the shocks of the year when Old Trinity blitzed them early in Round 2. They bounced back to win their next 8 before falling to the Blues in Round 12, then the Tonners in Round 14. They arrive in September on a 4-game winning streak.

Uni Blues won their first 3 before back-to-back losses to SKOB & Old Xavs. They then peeled off a dominant 10-game winning streak before being upset by the wooden-spooner Snowdogs in Round 16.

Now these two powerhouse contenders face off for a place in the 2026 Grand Final, with the loser to face a very dangerous Preliminary Final against SKOB or the Tonners.

Old Xavs tripped at this Second Semi hurdle last year and ultimately missed the premiership decider due to Angus Jones’ final kick of the Prelim sending the Cardinals into the Big One. Dan Donati’s men will be primed and ready to try and snatch this weekend’s golden opportunity and avoid the threat of further Prelim heartbreak.

KEYS TO THE GAME

BALL RETENTION – These are 2 of the Top 3 Disposal teams in the comp, with Xavs averaging a whopping 381 (#1) and the Blues 345 (#3).

Both are middle-of-the-road contested teams – the Blues #4 & Xavs #5 for Contested Possession, while it’s #6 vs #5 for Clearances.

That highlights that both teams can control the game in general play rather than relying predominantly on stoppages to win possession.

They are both effective intercept teams (Blues #2 for Intercept Possession, while Xavs are #4), but the Blues are the better aerial interceptors (#2 for Intercept Marks vs #4 for Xavs).

Both teams do one thing exceptionally well: retain the football. They are the Top 2 teams for Disposal Efficiency (Xavs 68% and Blues 66%), so once they have control of the Sherrin, it’s very difficult to get it off them.

Xavs are specialists at getting the ball from inside the contest into open space. They are #1 for Retaining Possession out of Clearances, while the Blues are a surprisingly low #8. But with the gun forwards the Blues possess, it’s often more about getting it forward quickly than being too precise with it.

The team that can retain possession more effectively will have an immediate advantage. Coughing it up could have serious consequences here.

CONVERSION – They are both Top 3 Finishers around goal (Xavs #1 vs Blues #3 for Goal Accuracy), blessed with multiple avenues to goal, any of which can bob up on any given day and take the primary scoring role that guides their team to victory.

Unlike the First Semi Finalists, these two teams both have an old-fashioned spearhead leading their attack. For Uni Blues, it’s the league’s leading goalkicker James Stewart, who has booted 71 goals from 16 games. At his best, he’s almost unstoppable; capable of cracking a game wide open in 15 minutes of magic.

He has had an extended break, given he missed the final two rounds due to suspension. Add in last weekend’s bye, and he hasn’t played since August 15. Does that make him primed and ready to explode, or a little rusty? Time will tell, but you’d be leaning towards the former.

If Stewart doesn’t get you, then Sam Grimley (41 goals) or Ben Townson (30 goals) might.

The Blues’ triple threat up forward has combined for 142 goals, and don’t take your eyes off James Curran (20 goals) or Charlie Cotter (17) either – they can also bob up at the most inopportune time to ruin your afternoon.

Old Xaverians’ strike force is led by the league’s second-leading goalkicker, Charlie Macisaac, who has kicked 62 goals from his 18 appearances.

So consistently effective, he has a bag of 8 (St Bernard’s), a bag of 6 (Uni Blacks), 5 against the Tonners, then an incredible 11 games with 3 or 4 goals. He’s the sort of player you can do well on all afternoon, yet he still walks off with 4 goals to his name.

But, like Blues, it’s far from a one-man-band, and part of Macisaac’s success is due to the collection of guns around him. Opposition defenders can’t sag off their own man to help on Charlie all afternoon, or they’ll get burnt by their own opponent.

Ed Delany (26 goals), Wade Brusnahan (24), Charlie Knott (18) and Julian Gangi (14) have all kicked goals at important times, plus they have goalkicking midfielders like Campbell Lane, Jack O’Sullivan, Ollie Sestan (all 11 goals apiece), and Sam Fisher with 10. Their scoring options are everywhere.

DEFENCE – Fortunately, they are the Top 2 defences (Blues #1 vs Xavs #2), so they’re well equipped to handle the brilliant attacks being thrown at them.

Their two meetings this season had similar scorelines:
Rd.5 - Old Xaverians 15.10 (100) d. Uni Blues 9.16 (70)
Rd.12 - Uni Blues 16.12 (108) d. Old Xaverians 10.9 (69)

On both occasions, one or two forwards made the eventual difference.

Charlie Macisaac and Oscar Duncan both kicked 4 apiece in Xavs’ Round 5 win, while no Blue kicked more than 2.

Ben Townson got off the chain and kicked 5 in the Blues’ Round 12 victory, while Macisaac was held to 2 and no other specialist forward kicked more than 1 for Xavs.

So, history suggests that one or two forwards getting the better of their direct opponents could be the difference between two evenly matched teams.

Both defences will need to be on high alert all afternoon, and each team’s ability to pressure the other’s ball-carriers to force messier delivery Inside 50 might prove critical. If you give Stewart, Macisaac and co. quality supply, they’re going to kick a score on you.

Can one defence somehow manage to contain all the opposition’s forward options? History suggests not.

Both teams have beaten each other on the road in 2026, with Xavs saluting by 30 points at the Uni in Round 5, before the Blues turned the tables by 39 points at Toorak Park in Round 12 to assume premiership favouritism. Now the all-important third chapter decides who takes the Express Lane to the Grand Final and who has to walk through Death Valley on Preliminary Final Day.

It promises to be a fantastic contest between two well-credentialed premiership contenders!

Watch the Second Semi Final LIVE & EXCLUSIVELY on Kommunity TV, with radio coverage on VAFA.com.au & the SEN app from 2.15pm Saturday!

(If you’re going to the game, TAKE YOUR HEADPHONES/EARBUDS & enjoy our award-winning call of the action with NO DELAY via SEN Stadium on the app.)

VAFA MEDIA TIPS:
Matthew Donald – Old Xaverians by 13pts
Hugo Higginbotham - Old Xaverians by 4pts

Image credit: Rod Hathway